The Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (4:00 pm ET, FS1) marks the second non-drafting oval race of the year, but the first using the intermediate package rather than the higher horsepower, lower downforce package that was used at Phoenix last weekend.
LVMS is a 1.5-mile classic oval, with plenty of track and similar track history available for almost the whole field of drivers. With practice and qualifying done, NASCAR odds peg Vegas ace Kyle Larson as the race favorite.
My practice FLAGS metrics agree that Larson showed elite speed, and by starting fifth he's the rightful favorite.
However, I'm using my FLAGS metrics to find some deeper value for my NASCAR at Las Vegas best bets.
Dr. Nick's NASCAR Best Bets for Las Vegas
*Odds as of Sunday Morning
Ty Gibbs
Gibbs ranked second in practice FLAGS and was really strong through the long run, ranking third in long-run speed and sixth in tire degradation, making him one of the top contenders for the Pennzoil 400.
However, FanDuel is pricing his top-5 finish at +550 while other books have him at around 2-1. My model isn't as bullish as the other sportsbooks thanks to some ups and downs for Gibbs on this track type in the past, but I still have him at 26.2% to finish in the top five, which equates to around +280 as fair value.
Grab this number at FanDuel pronto.
The Bet: Ty Gibbs Top-5 Finish (+550 at FanDuel) | Bet to: +300
Zane Smith
If you follow me in the Action App you'll see I took Zane Smith's top-10 finish earlier in the week at +1200. Now that practice and qualifying have taken place, the bet has proven strong and my model rates his chances to finish inside the top 10 just north of 30% of the time.
Smith was a top-five car in group-adjusted practice FLAGS, and while he did struggle a bit with consistency and tire degradation, overall it's pretty hard to pass up on a driver that posted those practice speeds who also starts 12th, showing plenty of peak speed as well.
The books did adjust his top-10 odds after practice, but +550 odds at bet365 and FanDuel equate to a 15.4% implied probability. That means my model gives him essentially double the implied probability, so there's extremely strong value still even at this price.
I'm not going to track it in the app again since I'm sitting pretty with my 12-1, but if you're late to the party I definitely don't mind hopping on at +550.
The Bet: Zane Smith Top-10 Finish (+550 at FanDuel) | Bet to: +400
