The initial weekend dust is starting to settle in the desert, but the betting board isn't offering a single second of breathing room. We have an 8-game slate on tap this Sunday, mapping out another wall-to-wall marathon with staggered start times kicking off at 3:00 p.m. ET and running continuously through the 10:00 p.m. ET nightcap.
We’ve audited the tracking metrics, mapped out the rotational advantages, and identified where the oddsmakers have over-adjusted to early variance. Let's get into my NBA Summer League picks and predictions for Sunday, July 12.
NBA Summer League Predictions, Picks for Sunday, July 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Suns vs. Pelicans Prediction
The New Orleans Pelicans have leaned on high-volume production from their lead options, but their overall team efficiency metrics indicate they might be hitting a wall.
Through their opening Vegas appearances, the Pelicans have put up a healthy 93.5 points per contest, but they carry a collective -4.5 point differential.
Kobe Bufkin has taken on a massive work load, averaging 24.5 points per game, while center Hunter Dickinson has been a productive interior target with 16.5 points on 48.1% shooting.
However, when the ball stops moving, the Pelicans' half-court sets tend to stall out, leaving secondary playmakers like Markquis Nowell (12.0 PPG, -8) to force contested looks late in the clock.
The Phoenix Suns present a more balanced, multi-positional defense that can disrupt that isolation-heavy flow. In their opening action, the Suns immediately established an identity in a tidy 2-point win.
Phoenix center Khaman Maluach was an absolute force in his debut, anchoring the low post to the tune of 19.0 points and a team-high +6 plus-minus.
Maluach’s vertical gravity gives the Suns a distinct athletic edge to limit Dickinson on the glass, while the perimeter options remain optimized.
Koa Peat added 17.0 points of frontcourt muscle, and Javonte Cooke completely altered the geometry of the floor by scoring 21.0 points on a blistering 5-of-8 (62.5%) from beyond the arc.
If Phoenix protects the paint and wins the possession game, the Suns should have enough depth to cover this number.
Pick: Suns -5.5 (-108)
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Hornets vs. Celtics Pick
Through their initial Vegas games, the Hornets are averaging 85.5 points while scorching the perimeter to the tune of a tournament-high 39.7% from three-point range.
Liam McNeeley has been a summer titan for Charlotte; he is generating 22.5 points per contest while shooting 60.0% from deep and distributing 4.5 assists.
With Tidjane Salaün providing excellent complementary length and defensive utility (10.5 PPG, +8), Charlotte executes their half-court screening actions with pristine spatial alignment.
The Celtics managed to grab a win in their opener, but from a purely analytical standpoint, their offensive execution appears to be terminal. Boston scratched out 83.0 points despite shooting a thoroughly putrid 30.5% from the field and 26.5% from deep as a collective unit.
Center Amari Williams masked those glaring perimeter deficiencies by bully-balling his way to 23.0 points and 13.0 rebounds, while guard John Tonje chipped in 20.0 points but finished with a -2 net rating.
Banking on a team to continuously cover spreads while shooting 30% from the floor is a mathematically flawed betting strategy.
Charlotte’s perimeter speed will likely pull Williams away from the rim, forcing Boston's slow-footed wings into defensive rotation. I'll lay the short number with the sharper team.
Pick: Hornets -2.5 (-118)
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Kings vs. Wizards Best Bet
This is the premier matchup on tonight's Summer League slate.
The Wizards possess undeniable individual scoring tools, paced by AJ Dybantsa (27.0 PPG) and Tre Johnson (26.0 PPG) carrying them to a loud 4-point win over the Jazz in their first game. But underneath those explosive rookie highlights sits a very loose, undisciplined defensive structure.
Washington failed to communicate through point-of-attack screen actions, and their interior rotation collapsed whenever their guards got beat, highlighted by big man Julian Reese laboring through a -14 plus-minus in his 20.5 minutes of floor time.
The Kings do not rely on pure individual variance to generate good looks. In their Vegas debut, Sacramento showcased beautiful baseline floor balance. Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. set a fierce physical tone with 19.0 points, while the secondary scoring options shredded the paint.
Emanuel Sharp poured in a team-high 21.0 points (+6), while the interior tandem of Jonathan Mogbo (12.0 points, 57.1% FG) and center Dylan Cardwell (15.0 points, 62.5% FG) dominated the low-post mirrors.
Sacramento moves the ball far too well for Washington's gambling, over-rotating scheme to handle without surrendering an abundance of high-value corner looks. I'll back the Kings to win outright on the moneyline.
Pick: Kings Moneyline (+100)
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Clippers vs. Jazz Prediction
The Los Angeles Clippers put together a listless offensive performance in their Las Vegas debut, and now they are running into a buzzsaw against a young, physical Utah program.
The Clippers crawled to just 85.0 points in their Summer League opener, while shooting an inefficient 33.3% from the floor and 25.0% from downtown; and coughing up 19.0 team turnovers.
Cam Christie managed 15.0 points but finished at a -7 plus-minus, while rookie forward Norchad Omier was completely neutralized by size inside, registering 7.0 points and tanking the interior rotation with a team-worst -16 on-court mark.
The Utah Jazz dropped a narrow battle in their opener, but their individual and team efficiency baselines are miles ahead of what the Clippers are rolling out. Utah put up 88.0 points with excellent backcourt control.
Darryn Peterson is handling a heavy volume load with supreme comfort, averaging 24.0 points and 3.0 assists, while forward Cody Williams adds crucial transition balance with 16.0 points on 50.0% shooting.
More importantly, the Jazz have reliable secondary playmaking anchoring their staggered lineups, with guard Trey Alexander facilitating beautifully to log 13.0 points and a stellar +14 plus-minus.
Utah will likely swarm the Clippers' sloppy ball-handlers and dominate the transition game. I'll lay the 3.5 points with the Jazz tonight.
Pick: Jazz -3.5 (-115)
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