The Miami Heat (14-10) and Orlando Magic (14-10) will meet in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals on Tuesday night. Tipoff from the Kia Center in Orlando, Florida is set for 6:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Heat are 1-point favorites over the Magic in tonight's contest, with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. Miami is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Orlando is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs Magic picks and NBA predictions for Tuesday, December 9.
Heat vs Magic Picks, Props, Predictions for NBA Cup Quarterfinals
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Heat vs Magic Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Heat vs. Magic Spread Prediction
This game comes down to two factors: the Franz Wagner injury and where the Heat force teams to play.
Wagner is the Magic’s best player. Paolo Banchero was drafted No. 1 and has the biggest name, and in time could make a leap to true All-Star and franchise-player levels.
However, he’s just not there yet. He’s coming off a multi-week injury and his inefficiency before that injury was a real problem.
Wagner facilitates and finishes; he coordinates and capitalizes. His absence is meaningful, but don’t just take my word for it.
Since 2023-24, the Magic are 11-21 SU without Wagner, 14-18 ATS.
Wagner is +2.9 in halfcourt plus-minus offensively per Cleaning the Glass, meaning the halfcourt offense is 2.9 points better with him on the floor.
That’s a big deal in this matchup.
The biggest mismatch is the Magic’s halfcourt offense, which still ranks 21st, even after their recent offensive jump, against the Heat’s halfcourt defense, which ranks 2nd behind OKC.
The Magic don’t create good shots, and the Heat don’t allow them.
Now, the other half of this equation is transition.
The Magic are actually really good in transition, ranking 6th. Meanwhile, the Heat are actually vulnerable in transition at 21st in points per possession.
But the trick is that Miami doesn’t allow shots or fouls in transition. They have the 4th-highest opponent transition rate in the league. They disrupt you and force you to set up your half-court offense.
With Wagner, the Magic’s transition frequency goes up by two percentage points, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but is the 83rd percentile for a player this season.
The Magic run less without Wagner; Orlando’s fast-break points per 100 possessions goes down by 1.3 points without him on the floor.
Again, that might not sound like much, but consider that against the spread.
The Magic’s biggest offensive set creation in halfcourt is out of pick-and-roll, but Miami is 4th defending it.
On the flip side, Miami’s offense is nothing to write home about; they’re not actually a great offense, they’re just fast.
But what they do is attack without screens in isolation, the one area in which Orlando struggles.
The Magic are the 8th-worst team defending in isolation this season, while Miami is the 4th-best.
In short, this is a bad matchup for the Magic. Follow that up with two more trends:
- Erik Spoelstra is 11-7 SU lifetime vs. Jamahl Mosley, including 2-0 this season.
- Spoelstra is 12-7 since 2021 vs. division opponents after losing the last matchup against them like the Heat did a week ago in the final Cup group stage game; a nail-biter.
This is going to be a close game, I project it tight like it’s lined, although winning teams in the eight previous NBA cup quarterfinals games have won by an average of nine points per game.
I’ll be playing overtime and tight margin props. But I think the matchup and the spot both favor the Heat.
Pick: Heat -1
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Heat vs. Magic Over/Under Pick
Everything above reads as an under, and I project this total at 232, two points below the current number, and five below where it was two days ago on the lookahead.
Orlando’s defense is still very tough, even with the ISO problems, and they limit everything on the margins.
The average total in matchups between Miami and Orlando has been 216.
I get why it’s so much higher with the pace both teams play at, but they won’t have as much luck finding transition chances against these defenses.
Pick: Under 235.5
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Bam Adebayo Three-Pointers Prop
The Magic are diligent about contesting corner threes in their scheme.
They allow the 10th-fewest 3-point makes from the corner this season per game.
Adebayo leads the Heat in corner three-point rate, both for attempts and makes.
Orlando allows way more above-the-break attempts and makes, but Adebayo still only shoots 37 percent on those attempts.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Wendell Carter Jr. Points Prop
A counter-play, I’ll bet in SGPs with the under.
More misses equal more rebounds, and WCJ leads Orlando in second-chance points, an area where Miami struggles because of their small lineups.
Miami gives up the third-most second-chance points per game, and WCJ can run the floor.
He can also stretch to 3-point range in halfcourt, which the Magic will allow, but he’s proven to be a viable shooter, landing 40 percent this season.
Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 11.5 Points
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Heat vs. Magic Same Game Parlay
Black is the third-highest usage player for the Magic in halfcourt, and yet he ranks in the 13th percentile in halfcourt efficiency.
Wiggins, meanwhile, has oddly had trouble scoring against Black in his matchups against him and should see a good amount of time on him.
You can parlay this with the under, correlated of course, for +400 as well.
Pick: Andrew Wiggins Under 14.5 Points + Anthony Black Under 14.5 (+220)
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Heat vs. Magic Game Prop Predictions
With priors, I make this game within two points, right on the line.
Even with the Heat’s terrific start, which has them much more highly power rated, I make this just over 5.
Both of the first two matchups between these teams were close, and while Wagner gives the Heat the edge for me, Magic homecourt balances out a lot of that.
Pick: Game to Go to Overtime (+1200), Either Team to Win by 5 or Less (+225)
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