Moore’s Tuesday Betting Angles: Trusting the Altitude in Hawks-Nuggets and Nets-Jazz
Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokić
- Matt Moore sees betting value on both Jazz-Nets and Nuggets-Hawks on Tuesday night.
- He dives into the angles that made him interested in both and gives his picks.
Here are two betting angles on Tuesday’s NBA slate based on matchups and trends…
Odds as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
THE ANGLE: Trusting The Jazz
The Jazz are on a back-to-back. They probably did not get home until around 3 a.m. local time and were probably asleep by 3:30 a.m.
Now, we don’t have any data on what late arrivals actually mean against the spread, let alone for home vs. away teams. But here’s some context for you.
Jazz ended up leaving 41 minutes late, arriving exactly one hour late. Let the second half of the B2B begin! pic.twitter.com/geQ7uqwfTo
— Ken Clayton (@k_clayt) November 12, 2019
The Jazz will cancel shootaround. Teams rarely hold them on a back-to-back anyway. So a player usually arrives at, say, midnight on a back-to-back, sleeps 7-8 hours and then comes in for shootaround, which is typically at around 10 a.m. (11 a.m. if you’re the visiting team), then goes back for a nap.
Most players won’t do this, though. They’ll get up on short rest and then take a nap as almost everyone does pre-game. So we’re really only talking about an hour of total sleep disruption.
Now, messing with a player’s clock can certainly screw things up, but it’s also not universal. It may impact some players and not others. Don’t fully buy into the idea that the travel and sleep will ruin the Jazz on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Nets are dead last in defensive rating on the road at 117.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. They can’t stop anyone. Utah’s offense has nights where it’s bogged down, but effectively, Utah plays to the level of its competition.
Against the Lakers, Suns, and Bucks, three top-10 defensive teams, the Jazz had an offensive rating under 100. But against the Warriors, Kings, and Clippers (without Kawhi Leonard), three teams all bottom 10 in defensive rating (Clippers are 14th overall, without Leonard they drop considerably), the Jazz put up an offensive rating over 110.
Meanwhile, Utah has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league at home. The Nets’ have one of the worst pick and roll defenses in the league; Donovan Mitchell should have a big night. Kyrie Irving will do his thing when the Jazz switch, but Utah will throw multiple bodies at him while closing out on shooters.
When the home team is on the second night of a back-to-back this season, the under is 12-4-1, (10-3-1 with a total of 217 or more; it’s 219.5 as of this writing after opening at 217). Brooklyn, notably, was the away team in two of those games. Utah was already the home team in such an instance once this season, holding the Kings to 81 points.
I don’t want the total over because I don’t trust the Nets’ defense, and I don’t want the Jazz over because they’re on a back-to-back after getting in late. I do, however, trust the Jazz defense to get the job done, and this line is low for Utah’s historical performance under Quinn Snyder vs. teams under .500.
Snyder as less than a 10-point favorite at home vs. teams under .500 is 37-21-3 ATS (64%) per Bet Labs, including 7-4-2 when on a back to back.
I trust Utah here.
THE PLAY: Utah (-7), Nets under 106.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
THE ANGLE: Mile High Beatdowns
Denver is 1-3 at home this season, an odd departure from their model historically and under Michael Malone the past three seasons. They covered vs. the Heat who came in with the league’s best net rating. Not covering vs. the Suns -11.5 early is excusable because no one realized the Suns were actually good yet. They lost to the Mavericks and barely squeaked by the Sixers without Ben Simmons, however.
Yet, I’m ready to trust them laying 11.5 to the Hawks.
First off, since 2017-18, Malone teams at home are 13-9-0 ATS when laying 9.5 or more, and 9-5 under such conditions last season. It was a big point of frustration for Malone for years that his team just wouldn’t show up for non-marquee games. His young squad would get up for the Lakers and then screw around vs. the dregs.
Now, the Nuggets’ floor is just higher, and they’re exceptional at taking what opponents give them.
Meanwhile… the Hawks had the predictable post-injury/suspension bump with John Collins going down, beating the Spurs. Since then, they are -12.4 in net rating, and have just a 101 offensive rating.
The Hawks were already overperforming defensively early on in the season, and that’s started to regress on that end. They’ve given up a 109 or greater defensive rating in three of their last five contests, after not giving up more than 107 in their first four games.
And without Collins, their offense is starting to melt. Teams are trapping Trae Young — the Nuggets will do the same at times Tuesday — and without Collins, there’s no short-roll weapon to make teams pay.
When you trap Young and the ball stops, the offense has to reset, and that gives a limited Hawks weapon set little time, or it forces a turnover. Bruno Fernando is just not the player Collins is, offensively.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, have been terrific defensively. Some of it is smoke and mirrors; they’re allowing just a 48% eFG vs. a middle-of-the-road expected mark of 52%, via PBPStats.com.
But the Nuggets are also top 10 in a lot of categories, including defending the pick and roll ball-handler (see: Young, Trae), at the rim (10th best), both limiting catch-and-shoot opportunities (9th lowest per game, via Synergy Sports) and points per possession on catch-and-shoots (4th).
Without Collins, the Hawks are limited, the Nuggets’ defense is great, and they take care of business at home. With a re-engaged Nikola Jokic that emerged last week and over the weekend, Denver should be able to manage the double-digit spread and limit the Hawks.
THE PLAY: Nuggets (-11) and Hawks under [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]