NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Thursday, Dec. 19): How I’m Betting Lakers-Bucks, Rockets-Clippers

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 4-0 for +1.7 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Pelicans +4.5 and it closed at Pelicans +3.5 (won)
• I bet Pelicans +165 ML and it closed at Pelicans +145 (won)
• I bet Celtics -125 ML and it closed at Celtics -125 (won)
• I bet Warriors-Blazers over 221.5 and it closed at 221.5 (won)

I unfortunately wasn't able to grab the Pelicans at +6.5 right after news came out that Karl-Anthony Towns was out, but I was surprised it reopened at +4.5 shortly after. There were some bullish indicators for the Pelicans despite losing 13 games in a row, which is probably why the line didn't budge as much as expected given Towns' value to this team.

I was able to successfully fade the Mavs with the Celtics, and I also hit the Warriors-Blazers over. I only really got CLV on the Pelicans, but I still felt good about the other two bets.

Anyway, let's dive into today's slate and find some angles.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

• Overall: 145-117-2
• Spreads: 54-49-2
• Totals: 43-40
• Moneylines: 14-6
• Props: 29-22

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz (-6.5) at Atlanta Hawks, 225.5
• 8 p.m. ET: LA Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks (-4), 226
• 8:30 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs (-3.5), 219.5
• 10:30 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets at LA Clippers (-4.5), 235.5

Today's a great day to find value based on impending injury news. Let's run through a couple angles I'm eyeing.

Lakers at Bucks

Despite both teams sitting at 24-4, they're both coming off losses — the Lakers to the Pacers without Anthony Davis on Tuesday and the Bucks to the Mavs without Eric Bledsoe on Monday.

Injury-wise for tonight, Anthony Davis is questionable to suit up with that sprained right ankle, Kyle Kuzma is out and Rajon Rondo is probable with a sore left hamstring. For the Bucks, they'll continue to be without Bledsoe, who will miss around two weeks with a fractured fibula.

That Mavs game Monday was very disappointing. The Bucks didn't just fail to cover the double-digit spread, but lost outright at home despite Dallas missing its most valuable player.

That was probably pretty fluky, though. The Bucks got a good amount of open shots but just couldn't hit anything. A high 21.9% of their 3-pointers — 23 of them in total — were classified as "wide open" by NBA.com, and the Bucks hit just 21.7% of them. The Bucks aren't the shooting team they were last season, ranking middle of the pack in 3-point efficiency, but Monday's game was likely incredibly unlucky.

The same was true on defense. The Mavs posted a 70.8% eFG% mark on open shots on Monday, including hitting 50% of their 3-pointers.

Bledsoe is a good player, but it's unclear how much exactly he's worth to this team. On the season, all lineups without Bledsoe have posted a Net Rating of +10.1. In the 698 possessions Giannis Antetokounmpo has played without Bledsoe, the Bucks have been at a +7.4 mark. That's not as elite as their overall team metrics, but they've still been quite good.

The same has largely been true with Davis for the Lakers, which is a little odd. Without him on the floor, the Lakers have posted a +7.3 Net Rating in 811 possessions. With him playing, they've been at +8.6. With LeBron James on and AD off, the Lakers have posted a +10.5 point differential.

Obviously, the Lakers are not better without Davis; those numbers are still a small sample, and they're inflated by opponent, bench units, etc. I've discussed this a lot and it's really true tonight: Player value is not in a vacuum. It depends on a variety of factors, one of which is opponent, and you can make the argument pretty easily that Davis (or any good player) is worth more against the Bucks than he is against the Hawks.

I think the current line is hedging a little bit with the Davis news with more weight on him playing. If he plays, it'll likely to move toward Bucks -3, and if he's out it'll balloon farther to Bucks -6, or so. If you are just trying to grab a little CLV, you'll likely get it either way.

Let's talk about this game assuming Davis plays. This is honestly one of the more fascinating matchups in the NBA given how these teams play. They're obviously both elite, each ranking in the top-five on both offense and defense.

But how the Lakers play offensively will be fascinating to watch. The Bucks have gone against the trend of switching defenses the past few years, instead going incredibly conservative within pick-and-rolls, dropping the big way down and completely selling out to protect the paint. Yet again this season, they're near the top of the league in 3s given up (28th) and near the bottom of the league in shots allowed at the rim (first).

Look at this possession against the Mavs the other day:

Even before the pick-and-roll, when Jalen Brunson initially passes to Dwight Powell, Brook Lopez is way off, with two feet firmly in the lane. Powell tries to drive into the lane, but that's exactly what the Bucks try to prevent, and Lopez is there to stop him. Then when he kicks back out and the Mavs initiate a pick-and-roll, Lopez stays in the lane.

Look at where he's at when Brunson kicks out to Powell for the 3:

That is incredibly emblematic of the Bucks' scheme: protect the paint at all costs and rely on their athletic wings to close out.

Now this is interesting because on offense the Lakers attack the rim frequently (second in shots there) and rarely take 3s (25th in rate). It's the immovable object vs. unstoppable force debate.

The Bucks won't cave; I can assure that. So will the Lakers adjust and take the open 3s available? Our will they fight strength vs. strength and try to attack the rim with Davis and LeBron?

That, my friends, is the most important question of the night.

Regarding bets tonight, it obviously depends on whether AD plays or sits, and as noted above, there will likely be value either way initially. If Davis is confirmed in, there's likely value on the Lakers if the line is above +4. If he's out, the Bucks will be a solid bet at that number.

Rockets at Clippers

The Rockets are a pretty weird team. They remain a potent offense and beat this Clippers team in their first matchup, although that one was without Paul George (with Kawhi Leonard, though). In the last 10 days, however, they've dropped home games to the Kings and Pistons.

The defense has really struggled in that five-game stretch, allowing 112.3 points per 100 possessions, mostly to bad offenses. The offense has still beeen great, scoring 115.0 points/100, but the defense has been a roller-coaster all year, which is scary against the Clippers.

That's probably why the over has been hammered today, with steam moves on the over at 233 and then again at 234. The line has moved up from 233 at open to 235 at the time of writing.

There's also a decent argument for the under, however, which my colleague Justin Phan made in our new Labs NBA Insider tool:

"The Rockets' pace has slowed down significantly as of late, and they've had three of their four slowest-paced games this season over the past 10 days. The Clippers returned from a six-game road trip and are back at home, where they boast the league's best defense (99.2 DRtg). Patrick Beverley has spent more time guarding James Harden than any defender this season, and Harden has shot just 1-of-7 from the field in this matchup. Also keeping an eye on the Clippers spread should it get under 5."

Another interesting angle here is the math problem: The Rockets remain first in the league for the millionth consecutive season in 3-point rate. The Clippers, however, are just 13th in shots at the rim and 20th in 3-point rate. The Clips get to the free throw line often, which helps their efficiency, but they are reliant on mid-rangers and hitting tough shots.

Both teams also allow a bunch of 3s, ranking in the bottom-eight in 3-point rate allowed, although both have solid opponent 3 FG% marks. The Rockets let opponents get out in transition at a high rate. Perhaps the math problem is muted in this one: The Clips should get good looks at the line and in transition, even if the Rockets are taking more 3-pointers.

It's also unclear whether the Rockets will be a good shooting team this year. They're just 26th in 3-point FG%. James Harden is fine at 35.9%, and PJ Tucker remains a great shooter at 42.1% (he takes most of his shots from the corner), but the rest of the team has been poor. Russell Westbrook has been especially bad, hitting just 22.8% (!!) of his 3-pointers on the year.

In the second matchup between these teams this season (yes, this is already their third matchup), the Clips took it, 122-119. The Clippers dominated at the rim and in transition, and notably they had both Kawhi and PG.

I think that combination should prove too much for the Rockets outside of an outlier shooting night from Houston. In the first matchup, Kawhi really struggled from the field. Tucker played awesome defense on him:

In that clip, Westbrook also cheated aggressively off Patrick Beverley, bothering Kawhi's shot.

And here, Tucker just plays great defense on Kawhi:

Tucker can give him problems, and that's valuable for the Rockets, but it's less of a big deal with George playing. Further, the Clips are getting healthier with shooters like Landry Shamet and Lou Williams, which could limit how aggressively they can help off the perimeter.

I don't have a strong opinion on the total, but I do like the Clips, especially if it drops below -5.

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Kevin Huerter – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Damian Jones
• Brooklyn Nets: Spencer Dinwiddie – Garrett Temple – Joe Harris – Taurean Prince – Jarrett Allen
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• LA Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Maurice Harkless – Ivica Zubac
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Milwaukee Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo – Wes Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez
• San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray – Bryn Forbes – DeMar DeRozan – Trey Lyles – LaMarcus Aldridge
• Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell – Joe Ingles – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Chandler Parsons (illness) is TBD. Trae Young (calf) is probable.
• Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving (shoulder) remains out. David Nwaba (ankle) is probable.
• Houston Rockets: Nothing new.
• LA Clippers: JaMychal Green (tailbone) is questionable.
• LA Lakers: Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is out. Anthony Davis (ankle) is questionable. Rajon Rondo (hamstring) is probable.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe (fibula) remains out.
• San Antonio Spurs: Nothing new.
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley (hamstring) is out.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders.

Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Ivica Zubac's 6.5-rebound total.

Zubac is a true big man, the type the Rockets have played off the floor at times. The Clips used him sparingly in the first two matchups, during which he played just 13 and 10 minutes, posting lines of 8-5 and 7-4. We have him currently projected for 17 minutes and still hitting the under, which shows the downside in the matchup and the upside for these props.

There are a bunch of ways this can go under: The Rockets could play him off the floor with their space and Clint Capela's rim-rolling, he could get into foul trouble, the Clips could use Montrezl Harrell more for offense, Zubac could simply not put up stats playing with so many big wings, etc. There are much fewer ways he hits the overs on his points and rebound props.

DFS Values and Strategy

It's a small slate but still loaded with superstars. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden are all above $10,000 on DraftKings.

The big question is whether AD will play; he's questionable with a sprained ankle and missed Tuesday's loss to the Pacers. He seems optimistic he'll be able to give it a go, but if not then he'll absolutely change the slate.

LeBron will obviously be the stud of choice in that scenario, despite missing value by double digits on Tuesday without his co-star. LeBron played poorly, turning the ball over five times and couldn't get shots to go down. Still, he played nearly 35 minutes and had a high usage rate. Even in a tough matchup vs. Giannis, he'd be a tough sell at just $10,000. He's likely worth buying even if AD does go given that price tag.

Of the other studs, Giannis is standing out as the best value. He's been somewhat disappointing as a fantasy asset this year, although that's mostly because the Bucks have blown everyone out. In a likely tough, close game against the Lakers, getting a full load from Giannis is enticing.

Value-wise, there are a ton of options in the mid-tier. Clint Capela and Rudy Gobert have the highest Projected Plus/Minus values on DraftKings; they are worthy buys in the $7,000 range, especially given their awesome matchups. Donovan Mitchell gets an awful Hawks defense and is just slightly more expensive at $8,000.

That's going to be the question tonight: Do you go with the highest-priced studs with huge ceilings — or build around the mid-tier guys in the $7-8k range? I'd lean the latter currently, although things could change as injury news comes out.

Make sure to subscribe to our FantasyLabs models and check out our new Labs NBA Insiders tool to get up-to-the-minute information on injuries and projection changes.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

Nothing yet.

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