The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 7-game slate this Sunday, and I've locked in a total of six picks spanning four of today's contests — including bets for Cavaliers vs Mavericks, Knicks vs. Warriors, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Sunday, March 15.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Sunday, March 15
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Pistons vs. Raptors Spread & Total Bets
Pistons -3.5
I project this spread at Pistons -7.9.
Quite simply, the Raptors can’t hang against teams above their weight class.
The Raptors are 6-16 SU with the 23rd-ranked ATS differential of -2.8 against top-10 teams in point differential this season per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Toronto is 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS as a home 'dog this season, but 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS against teams over .600 in win percentage. They can’t beat or hang with good teams.
The matchup problem for Toronto is extra possessions. The Raptors are 17th in defensive rebound rate, while Detroit is 3rd in offensive rebound rate.
Even without Isaiah Stewart (calf), Jalen Duren and Paul Reed are going to mash the glass against Toronto.
The Raptors are also 22nd in foul rate defensively, while the Pistons are 5th in free throw rate.
Under 223.5
This is going to be an ugly, nasty game, but the margin should still lead for the Pistons to get clear of this number. I have them allowing just 107 points here to the Raptors’ very mid offense.
Which is why I like the Under as well. I project this line at 217.
The Raptors’ shot defense is high-level, and the Pistons are 15th in eFG%.
Toronto wants to score at the rim and the Pistons allow the third-fewest shots there.
There will be extra possessions and fouls, but the actual halfcourt offense side of this will be nasty.
The Raptors don’t turn the ball over, which will help avoid easy Pistons points.
Detroit is 7th in Under rate on the road. The Raptors are 9th in Under rate at home. Count on a gross game.
Pick: Pistons -3.5, Under 223.5
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Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Spread & Total Picks
Mavericks +15.5
Put simply, the Cavaliers are not this team. They are 5-12 ATS this season as double-digit favorites. They do not win by margin. They aren’t bad vs. bad teams — 14-3 straight up— but they haven't been able to beat the market expectation this season.
Jarrett Allen is out for the Cavaliers; that’s massive.
The Cavs are 5-11 ATS without Allen this season. They especially need him for this build with Harden to provide him with a pick-and-roll partner.
I’m not going to try and sell you on the Mavericks; they’re tanking. But they’ve consistently remained competitive. They are tanking in a respectable way.
Cooper Flagg will play, and the Mavericks have some young guys competing and helping. But they’re bad and haven’t been good against the number.
The Cavs won this last matchup by 33 points on Friday, so be wary here — but I don’t trust the Cavaliers to pull off that kind of dominance twice.
Under 235.5
The Under is is 15-8 in Mavericks road games when they are underdogs.
The Under is 20-11 when the Cavs are home favorites.
The Mavericks’ defense is consistently better than the market expects; the Cavs’ offense worse.
I project this total all the way down at 225.
Dallas is going to annoyingly play solid defense and struggle to score.
The Under is 11-5 in games when Allen isn't there to provide that pick-and-roll threat.
Pick: Mavericks +15.5, Under 235.5
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Warriors vs. Knicks Spread Prediction
The Warriors have been double-digit 'dogs without Stephen Curry four times this season; they are 1-3 ATS in those games. But three of them were vs. the Thunder, the other was vs. the Heat when everyone rested.
Of course, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton are all out tonight as well.
The Knicks are 8-4 ATS this season as double-digit favorites, including 3-0 at home, and 4-0 as more than a 13-point favorite.
They are +1.1 in ATS differential vs. bottom-10 teams in point differential, which is what the Warriors project as with all their injuries.
It’s an absurd number for the Knicks to lay against a team with playoff aspirations, but this just isn’t the actual Warriors — and they simply have not been able to cover without Curry; Golden State is 9-18 ATS without Steph this season.
I don’t know how the Warriors score, defend, rebound, or set their offense with what’s missing.
The Warriors pulled off a miracle in this spot vs. the Nuggets a month ago, but the Nuggets have been more inconsistent, and this is on the road at MSG.
The Knicks’ defense has been elite lately. This looks like an absolute smash spot for New York.
Even the contrarian in me can’t find a way to do anything but bet the Knicks. I make this line New York -18.5.
Pick: Knicks -14
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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Spread Prediction
Timberwolves +8.5
Anthony Edwards is questionable; if he plays, this line will probably move a few points toward the Wolves. If he sits, it likely moves a few points toward OKC.
I project this line at Thunder -10.2 without Edwards. I make it Thunder -6.6 with Edwards.
Those are the benchmarks that I’ll use to bet it based on Ant’s availability.
It seems likely Edwards is going to play given the marquee national TV matchup, but make sure you know what you’re betting into first.
The last two seasons, the Thunder are 7-5 SU against the Wolves, but just 4-8 ATS. Minnesota has consistently hung in this matchup, even in the playoff games where the Thunder dispatched them quickly.
This season, the Wolves are +11.0 in net rating vs. OKC with Rudy Gobert on the floor. Last season, it was -0.4, and in the playoffs it was +5.0.
The Wolves win the minutes with Gobert. They just do. The trick is getting Chris Finch to resist going small against the Thunder, which is what OKC wants.
The Thunder, with their wing versatility, constantly stress opposing coaches into trying to match up with them, but OKC has vulnerability on the glass and dislikes going against a closed off-paint with their inconsistent shooters.
However, the Wolves have found ways to attack the Thunder.
One of the interesting things about this matchup is that the Wolves are 15th in offensive turnover rate, which is better than their mark last year but still not great.
The Thunder, obviously, are elite at forcing turnovers, though not quite as good as last year.
Anecdotally, I see this a lot with the spread result. If a team is great at offensive rebounding and faces a bad defensive rebounding team, the bad defensive rebounding team covers.
The Knicks, for example, are 17-24 ATS over the last three seasons against below-average defensive-rebounding teams. It’s effectively baked into the spread, whether it’s actually part of the rating or not.
Minnesota is a tough team that overperforms vs. great teams and underperforms against everyone else. They are 10-8 against teams with a top-10 point differential and have the best point differential against those teams per CleaningTheGlass.com at +2.8.
I’ll trust that trend to continue and bet whatever number this settles at after Ant’s availability is announced.
Pick: Timberwolves +8.5
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