You'd have to go back 27 years to find the last time the New York Knicks were in the NBA Finals. Their opponent that year was fittingly the San Antonio Spurs, who won the series in five games to claim their first-ever NBA championship.
Ironically, these teams met one another in the in-season tournament (Emirates NBA Cup), which New York won 124-113. However, the real prize that awaits is the chance to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Nonetheless, these two teams are deeply intertwined in history, as the Knicks look to avenge their 1999 Finals defeat and end their 53-year title drought.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
Let's dive into my NBA game leader props for the Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
NBA Game Leader Props for Knicks vs Spurs Game 1
- Scoring Leader: Jalen Brunson (+186) / OG Anunoby (+1880)
- 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell (+438) / Julian Champagnie (+517)
Knicks vs Spurs Scoring Leader: Jalen Brunson / OG Anunoby
It's no surprise that San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama is the favorite (+102) for scoring leader in Game 1. After all, his postseason average of 27 points per game at home makes him a worthy candidate.
However, despite having an implied value of 41.2%, Wembanyama finishes with the most points in only 29% of my model's simulations.
In comparison, New York's Jalen Brunson finishes first in 30.7% of the simulations, and his +186 odds provide a better return.
One concern for Brunson might be that he's a smaller guard at 6-foot-2. The Spurs can deploy a backcourt with more size, given the likes of Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, all of whom are 6-foot-5 or taller.
Therefore, Brunson could face a stiffer test against this Spurs defense than OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did in the Western Conference Finals.
I took a look at the regular-season series between these teams, and there was a different scoring leader in each game.
With Wembanyama and Brunson clearly having the shortest odds, everyone else is significantly longer at +1480 or higher.
As a result, I wouldn't mind taking a punt on a player at a higher price.
The Knicks will likely have their center, Karl-Anthony Towns, operate more on the perimeter to draw Wembanyama out of the paint.
New York will need to move the ball quickly should the Frenchman try to retreat.
One player who could benefit from decisive actions and quick ball movement is New York's OG Anunoby. The Knicks forward can heat up in a hurry, as he shot 38.6% from distance during the regular season and is at 38.3% in the playoffs.
Anunoby led all scorers with 28 points in one of the regular-season meetings, and his odds of +1880 offer value, considering my simulations price him at +1384.
Adding Anunoby as an option gives us a long shot to pair with our more conservative approach in backing Brunson.
Pick: Scoring Leader: Jalen Brunson (+186) / OG Anunoby (+1880)
Knicks vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell / Julian Champagnie
The market for most 3-pointers is much more competitive, with five players at odds shorter than +1000. Given the competition, Anunoby's odds are +630, making him a better option as the scoring leader if he has a good shooting night.
As a result, I see no reason to back the Knicks forward in this market. A better option would be to target the Spurs duo of Vassell (+438) and Julian Champagnie (+517).
In the Spurs' previous series, there were more wild-card options for 3-point leaders, such as OKC's Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams.
However, since we've got much shorter odds across the board this time around, I see less value in taking a chance on a long shot.
Vassell and Champagnie average the two highest 3-point attempt totals in the postseason entering this series. Both players dominate my simulations, with each having at least a 20% win rate for most 3-point field goals.
Moreover, their true odds are clearly suppressed, given an implied value no higher than 15%.
Champagnie is coming off a 6-for-10 performance in Game 7, while Vassell also had a game with six 3-pointers earlier in the postseason.
Thus, when you put it all together, both players represent our best options for most 3-pointers.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell (+438) / Julian Champagnie (+517)
