Through two games, the NBA Finals have given us a little bit of everything.
Game 1 had the Pacers come back from 15 pts down to steal the series lead on a last-second jumper by Tyrese Haliburton.
Game 2 not only had the 2nd-biggest NBA Finals spread in almost 50 years, but a result we’ve seen many teams in this year’s playoffs — a bounce back.
Road Lightning
The storyline for Game 3 is pretty simple. We have a 1-1 series and we have a team with the pedigree of the Thunder listed as a 5.5-point road favorite in Indiana for Game 3.
Dating back to the NBA-ABA merger back in 1976-77, this is tied for the 3rd-biggest road spread in an NBA Finals game. Of those two other series that had a road line this large, Bulls led 3-0 and 3-1 in 1996, and the Lakers led 3-1 against the Sixers in Game 5.
Biggest NBA Finals Road Spread Since Merger
-6, ’01 Lakers at PHI (G5, W by 12)
-6, ’96 Bulls at SEA (G4, L by 21)
-5.5, ’25 Thunder at IND (G3)
-5.5, ’96 Bulls at SEA (G5, L by 11)
Looking at the seven teams who were -4 or greater on the road in any NBA Finals game (list in note below), only the 2015 Warriors were either tied or trailed in the series at the time of the game. Golden State in 2015 trailed 2-1 in Cleveland, the Warriors were 4.5-point favorites and won by 21 after closing as just 2-point favorites in Game 3.
A Big Indication
In that same timeframe, we’ve only seen seven different teams listed as a favorite of -4 or higher in any NBA Finals road game — all seven of those teams went on to win the title, with none of the seven series even going to seven games. Those seven teams played a total of ten games at -4 or higher on the road in the NBA Finals and they went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.
Road Teams -4 Or Higher in NBA Finals Game Since Merger
2018 Warriors in 4 games
2017 Warriors in 5 games
2015 Warriors in 6 games
2002 Lakers in 4 games
2001 Lakers in 5 games
1999 Spurs in 5 games
1996 Bulls in 6 games
Cover Trouble
The other storyline for Wednesday night also has to do with the road and it’s Oklahoma City’s ATS futility.
The Thunder have started the playoffs 0-7 ATS (4-3 SU) on the road. They were the first team to lose 6 consecutive playoff road games ATS since the 2008 Celtics — who also started 0-6 ATS on the road — but then went 5-1 ATS on the road enroute to a title.
A little perspective on the Thunder's 0-7 ATS mark on the road through the Conference Finals. In the last 20 years, we haven't seen an 0-7 ATS road streak for any team at any point in the playoffs, regardless of game or series — and the Thunder have done it to start the playoffs. In that span, we've seen two Game 3 road favorites in the finals with a series tied 1-1: 2023 Nuggets (-3.5) beat the Heat by 15 and the 2015 Warriors (-2) lost to the Cavaliers by 5.
Overall, the Thunder are the first team to have no road playoff ATS wins entering an NBA Finals appearance since the merger in 1976-77.
Oklahoma City didn't have these same cover issues on the road during the regular season, where they were 25-13-2 ATS during the regular season. That 25-13-2 ATS mark was the best for any team during the regular season and then we got to the playoffs and the Thunder haven't covered a single game on the road since it started. Truly remarkable.
