Game 1 of the NBA Finals will take center stage this Wednesday — and our NBA betting expert Prop Bomb has locked in his top player prop bet for tonight's matchup between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs.
Let's dive into our NBA Finals player prop bet for Stephon Castle in Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 on Wednesday, June 3.
NBA Finals Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, June 3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Knicks vs. Spurs Player Prop Bet: Stephon Castle
Stephon Castle Under 16.5 Points (-105)
Twenty-seven years after these two franchises last met for a title, the NBA Finals open in San Antonio tonight behind a Spurs core that did not exist two seasons ago.
Victor Wembanyama is the obvious headliner, but it was second-year guard Stephon Castle who carried the backcourt load throughout the Western Conference Finals while De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper fought through their own injuries.
Castle is averaging 18.0 PPG across 15 playoff games with all starters available, but coming into a new series, I don’t think he will find as much success against the Knicks.
To understand why this line is too high, you have to know how Castle scores and what the Knicks will allow. He lives at the rim and the foul line: 43% of his shots come at the basket, and he is scoring 20% of his points from free throws.
However, one thing he does not do well is shoot over defenders. He shot 52.0 eFG%, which ranks in the 32nd percentile, and shot 26.7% from 3PT in his lone college season.
So, the scouting report has never changed. Go under the screen, wall the drive, live with the jumper. It is a bully-style, downhill game with no pull-up to punish you when the lane is closed.
During this playoff run, no team he faced yet has taken that away like New York will.
In four career meetings with the Knicks, Castle has averaged 11.5 points. Over the last five, a stretch that includes the NBA Cup final they won in December, he's averaging 12.2 points.
He has finished well under this number in each game against this defense, and in the most recent meeting, Josh Hart held him to 31% shooting across roughly 21 partial possessions on the ball, with OG Anunoby shading over to choke off the gaps.
Hart, Landry Shamet and Mikal Bridges have enough size to absorb his drives and turn him back, and with Mitchell Robinson cleared to play, New York has the rare big man mobile enough to switch onto Castle and protect the rim on the same possession, so even a broken play does not hand him the clean look he uses to punish slower centers.
It only gets harder in the margins. The extra rest days should have Fox closer to full health, easing the offensive load Castle was forced to shoulder in Game 7.
On the defensive end, Castle is burning his legs chasing around Jalen Brunson for 40 minutes.
With no jumper to fall back on, his handle gets loose under pressure too; he coughed it up nine times in a single game against Oklahoma City in this same postseason.
Given the matchup that has bottled him up every time they have met, the dead outside shot, a healthier San Antonio backcourt that shrinks his usage, and the two-way burden of guarding Brunson all night, it is unlikely that Castle clears 16.5 points in Game 1 this evening.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 16.5 Points (-105)
