A tripleheader is back on the card for Thursday as the higher-seeded teams get their first chance to host a playoff game.
The Eastern Conference kicks things off with the Knicks visiting the Hawks, followed by the Cavs traveling to Toronto to take on the Raptors. Our lone Western Conference matchup features the Timberwolves hosting the Nuggets in what could be the most entertaining first-round series.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Thursday, April 23
- Knicks vs Hawks Top Scorer – CJ McCollum (+740)
- Raptors vs Cavaliers vs Raptors Most 3-Pointers Made – Donovan Mitchell (+258)
- Nuggets vs Timberwolves Most 3-Pointers Made – Donte DiVincenzo (+433)
Knicks vs Hawks Top Scorer Prediction
The Hawks won't be short on confidence, knowing they emerged victorious the last time these two faced off in the playoffs, back in 2021. As the higher seed, Atlanta earned a split in the first two games in New York before returning to win all their home games, and then closed out the series in Game 5 on the road.
While I'm not saying the same sequence of events is likely to repeat itself, this Hawks team does look better and more balanced than the one we saw in 2021.
Over the years, the Hawks have featured younger teams, so the addition of a veteran like CJ McCollum before the trade deadline was a bit unexpected.
However, McCollum is proving to be a key part of this Hawks offense, considering he's their leading scorer in the playoffs (29.0 PPG) after ranking fourth (18.7 PPG) during the regular season.
Although the playoff sample size is only two games, McCollum is averaging at least nine more points than anyone else on the team while taking an extra 5.5 shots.
The key takeaway here is the Hawks have identified a matchup advantage against New York's Jalen Brunson, which they're trying to exploit.
Brunson is New York's best player, but he can also be a liability defensively. By attacking him when Atlanta has the ball, the Hawks are effectively forcing the Knicks' guard to work hard on both ends of the court, thereby making him more fatigued.
Game 3 will be a difficult matchup for the Knicks, as they are away from home in enemy territory. The Hawks are likely to remain buoyed by their home fans, and I expect them to continue targeting Brunson until he proves he can handle the challenge.
Despite having the fifth-shortest price to finish with the most points, given what we know about the Hawks' game plan, McCollum offers tremendous value at +740 odds.
Pick: Top Scorer: CJ McCollum (+740)
Raptors vs Cavaliers Most 3-Pointers Prediction
The Toronto Raptors aren't what you'd call a perimeter team. They ranked 21st in 3-point percentage (35.4%) and 26th in both 3-point field goals (11.4) and attempts (32.1) during the regular season. In comparison, the Cavaliers ranked 13th in perimeter percentage (36.0%), seventh in 3-point attempts (39.8) and eighth in field goals (14.3).
Thus, it's no surprise that the top three candidates to finish with the most 3-pointers are all Cavaliers players.
Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell has the shortest price on the board, but his odds of +258 still offer some value. Mitchell hasn't been shy about getting up his 3-point shots. He attempted seven in Game 1 and followed that up with 10 in Game 2 while finishing with four 3-pointers on both occasions.
It's nice to see that even with the acquisition of James Harden ahead of the trade deadline, there has been no confusion around who the Cavs best player is.
Therefore, Mitchell's aggressiveness and willingness to take the big shot make him a worthy option as our 3-point leader for Game 3.
Pick: Most 3-Pointers: Donovan Mitchell (+940)
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Most 3-Pointers Prediction
The Timberwolves now have momentum on their side after rallying from a 19-point deficit in Game 2 to knot the series up at one game apiece. Minnesota might've had a mindset shift, believing their best way home is to attack the Nuggets, who haven't been very good defensively this season.
Following their recent victory, Minnesota forward Jaden McDaniels didn't mince his words when describing the Nuggets.
"They're all bad defenders," McDaniels told the media. "They don't have people who can defend the rim. Even if Nikola Jokic is there, we're more athletic than them."
I've got no problems with those comments, especially when you know the next two games in the series will take place on your homecourt. McDaniels' comments should help to galvanize the fans as they head into the Target Center.
The Timberwolves will certainly look to feed off the crowd's energy, and Donte DiVincenzo is a player to watch since earning a starting role after predominantly coming off the bench for Minnesota last season.
DiVincenzo takes 77% of his shot attempts from beyond the perimeter, and he's a great option as an open man if the Nuggets try to double-team Anthony Edwards.
We saw that exact scenario play out in the fourth quarter with under two minutes remaining in Game 2.
Edwards has struggled from beyond the arc this postseason, shooting just 25% (5-of-20) through the two games. Yet, DiVincenzo has the third-shortest odds to finish with the most 3-pointers behind Edwards (+265) and Denver's Jamal Murray (+299).
That number feels a bit off because I wouldn't be too quick to make Edwards the favorite, and Murray should find things more difficult on the road.
As a result, DiVincenzo deserves strong consideration, given his odds are slightly undervalued at +433.
Pick: Most 3-Pointers Made: Donte DiVincenzo (+433)
