It's another full card on Thursday night for the NBA Playoffs, as three teams look to close out their series and advance to the conference semifinals. In the East, the Knicks and Celtics will have to win on the road to avoid a Game 7, while the short-handed Timberwolves will hope a favorable home crowd can spur them to victory and draw level with the Nuggets at three games apiece.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Thursday, April 30
- Knicks vs Hawks – Most 3-Pointers: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+232)
- Celtics vs 76ers – Top Scorer: Joel Embiid (+186)
- Nuggets vs Timberwolves – Top Scorer: Julius Randle (+650) / Ayo Dosunmu (+1060)
Knicks vs Hawks 3-Point Leader Bet
The Hawks are continuously facing deficits in this series due to their struggles on the glass. The Knicks are outrebounding Atlanta 229-186, leading to a 93-59 edge in second-chance points.
In the last two games, the Hawks suffered double-digit defeats of 16 points in Game 4 and 29 in Game 5.
At this point in the series, I'm not sure Atlanta can find the answer on the boards. To have any chance, the Hawks will likely need to win the perimeter battle to keep the scoreline close.
Atlanta is having to hoist up more 3-pointers given some of its challenges in the half-court set. No other playoff team has averaged more field goal attempts late in the shot clock than the Hawks (14.0).
During the regular season, the Hawks also ranked fifth in this category, with 9.7% of their attempts occurring late in the shot clock.
The one bright spot for the Hawks is that they have arguably the best 3-point shooter in the series in Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He's attempting the most 3-pointers (8.1 per game) of any player in this matchup while still shooting 39.9%.
As one of the leaders on this Atlanta team, I'd expect Alexander-Walker to have a decent performance following the lopsided defeat in Game 5.
Although Alexander-Walker is the favorite to finish with the most 3-pointers in Game 6, we can still get a nice payout with his odds at +232.
Since more than half of his shot attempts come from beyond the arc, he should have enough volume to mount a legitimate challenge.
Pick: Most 3-Pointers: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+232)
Celtics vs 76ers Points Leader Bet
Joel Embiid looked back to his old self again with a dominant performance in Game 5 after missing roughly three weeks following an appendectomy. Embiid scored 33 points on 12-of-23 (52.2%) shooting, but it was eight assists that might have impressed me the most.
With Embiid back healthy again, the 76ers are entrusting him with the ball in his hands to make plays. His willingness as a passer makes him even more of a threat as a scorer by keeping the opposing team guessing.
Let's not forget that Embiid still averaged 26.9 points in a season ravaged by injuries that limited him to just 38 games.
The Celtics lack the quality in their frontcourt to handle him one-on-one without a double team. One could argue that when healthy, Embiid is easily the best player on the court in this matchup.
Philadelphia earned a series split in the regular season and shouldn't have any reason to fear this Boston team.
While the Celtics probably have a stronger bench, the 76ers have the better starting lineup, and Embiid doesn't have a ton of mileage on the clock this season due to injuries.
Having Embiid on the floor helps simplify the 76ers' offense, and with his efficiency, he can rack up points in a hurry.
His odds are +186 to finish with the most points, and that number feels low considering that through two games, he's averaging 29.5 points despite shooting just 1-of-11 from the 3-point line.
Just imagine if Embiid regains his outside touch — we could be looking at a 40-point effort in Game 6.
Pick: Top Scorer: Joel Embiid (+186)
Nuggets vs Timberwolves Points Leader Bet
Despite losing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo to injuries, I still think this Timberwolves roster is deep enough to win Game 6 on their home court. Julius Randle has had some experience as a No. 1 option, while Ayo Dosunmu has proven he's more than capable of exploding with a big performance after his 43-point effort in Game 4.
Wolves forward Jaden McDaniels has already called out the Nuggets for their lack of defense, and Minnesota's athleticism can help expose Denver's vulnerabilities.
While there's no question the Timberwolves earned their 3-2 lead in this series, the last thing they want to do is go back to Denver for a Game 7.
As a result, this is one of those max-effort games for Minnesota, and one where you'd have to favor a player on the home team to finish with the most points.
Randle (+650) and Dosunmu (+1060) are certainly options for the Wolves, and, given their longer odds, taking a punt on both does make some sense. Dosunmu slots right into the starting lineup alongside Randle, and it's worth noting that his 38 minutes in Game 5 were six more than any of his teammates.
Therefore, despite being more of a bench option since joining the team ahead of the trade deadline, Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch has a ton of confidence in Dosunmu.
In Game 5, we saw Randle tie Jokic with a game-high of 27 points.
The Timberwolves have done a decent job limiting Jokic to 25.4 points per game in this series, with Rudy Gobert flashing some of the traits that propelled him to be a four-time Defensive Player of the Year.
Let's hope Gobert can do enough to stymie Jokic to allow for Randle or Dosunmu to finish as the top scorer.
Pick: Top Scorer: Julius Randle (+650) / Ayo Dosunmu (+1060)
