Phan: How DeAndre Jordan’s Status Impacts Betting, DFS Markets
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Jordan
- New York Knicks center DeAndre Jordan (ankle) is currently doubtful to suit up against the Orlando Magic (7:30 p.m. ET).
- Below, Justin Phan breaks down how Jordan's potential absence will affect betting and DFS markets tonight.
Tuesday’s NBA slate features three games with a variety of injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze tonight’s key situation:
- Orlando Magic at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
New York Knicks
Injuries: DeAndre Jordan (ankle) is doubtful.
Injury background: Jordan sprained his ankle during practice on Saturday and sat out of Sunday’s win vs. the Spurs. Coach David Fizdale said on Sunday that Jordan is without a timetable for a return, and although he is listed as doubtful it wouldn’t be surprising if he had to miss a few more games because of the injury.
Tonight’s impact: Lance Thomas drew the start next to Noah Vonleh on Sunday, with Mitchell Robinson getting the bulk of the minutes at center ahead of Vonleh. Luke Kornet was the odd man out with a DNP-CD despite rejoining the rotation in the Knicks’ previous four games.
Fizdale’s starting lineup and rotation minutes have changed on a whim throughout the season, but it seems likely that he’ll stick with this alignment for at least one more game.
Thomas was one of the Knicks’ two primary defenders on Aaron Gordon last season, and he did well with that assignment, holding Gordon to 18 points in 88 possessions and 5.2 points per 100 possessions below his usual scoring rate.
While it’s understandable that there have been calls for Fizdale to insert Robinson in the starting lineup, it’s a role that Robinson himself acknowledges makes it harder for him to mentally focus and leads to mistake fouls. He continued to thrive off the bench Sunday, putting up a 15-14 line with five blocks for 45 DraftKings points.
Robinson will be the DFS chalk option at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel and for good reason. With Vonleh seeing fewer than 18 minutes in four of the last five games, there’s once again a clear path for Robinson to be able to play 30 minutes off the bench again on Tuesday.
And when Robinson has played at least 26 minutes this season, he’s averaged 31.2 DraftKings points per game. At $5,400 on DraftKings, he needs just 24.8 points to exceed his salary-based expectation.
From a betting perspective, it’s worth noting that the Knicks have been a total dumpster fire with Jordan on the court so far. We’re dealing with only a 10-game sample, of course, but Jordan has the worst Net Rating differential among all Knicks players and it’s not even close.
The Knicks are 13.2 points per 100 possessions better with Jordan off the court this season, and it’s their offense that has suffered the most, as they’ve posted an abysmal 95.5 Offensive Rating with him on the court. For reference, the Bulls are dead last with a 101.8 mark this year.
Still, it’s tough to bet against the Magic given their current form. They lead the league in Net Rating over the past 12 games (+9.9) and have the No. 1 defense during that stretch. They’re also right in the thick of a playoff race, and a win Tuesday would move them into a tie with the Hornets for the 8-seed.
The Magic are 2-0 in their season series vs. the Knicks and have won those pair of games by an average of 20 points, including a 115-89 drubbing at Madison Square Garden in November that was their largest margin of victory over the Knicks in franchise history.
Jordan’s absence will certainly be felt on the glass, as the Magic have been one of the league’s best rebounding teams during their recent stretch. They should do well limiting second-chance points while winning the turnover battle.
Jonathan Isaac and Wes Iwundu have held Kevin Knox to just four points in 28 possessions this season, and Nikola Vucevic should feast against an undersized frontcourt that’ll likely counter with a 6’9″ Vonleh initially.
The Magic are currently 7- to 8-point favorites after opening at -6.5, and there’s still value on that spread up to 8.