The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 8-game slate this Tuesday, and I've locked in a total of four picks spanning two of today's contests — including bets for Cavaliers vs. Bucks and Spurs vs. Kings.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Tuesday, March 17.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, March 17
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Cavaliers vs. Bucks Spread & Total Picks
Cavaliers -10
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable after suffering a knee injury — after all his other ailments — and everyone is waiting for both Giannis and the Bucks to give up the ghost and shut him down for the season. I’m projecting him out for this game.
Jarrett Allen is out for the Cavaliers, and it’s a huge deal. Cleveland is now 5-12 ATS without Allen and the Under is 11-6.
Allen's absence has a major impact on the Cavs’ offense and their ability to run their spread pick-and-roll.
But ultimately, the Cavs are too much for Milwaukee to handle here.
I loved Dallas vs. the Cavs on Sunday, but I think the Cavaliers stomp the Bucks without Giannis tonight. I make the spread for this game Cavaliers -13.
Jaylon Tyson missed Sunday’s game vs. the Mavericks, and the Cavs are now 2-4 without him.
Just having Tyson back, even with Allen out, is enough to get me to bet on the Cavs here — albeit unenthusiastically.
Over 228.5
The real play, though, is the Over.
I just said the Cavs have been an Under machine without Allen, but the Bucks are much more susceptible defensively.
Then, there’s the fact that even after Giannis left the game Sunday, the Bucks still put up 130 points on the Pacers.
This Milwaukee offense still has some juice with its shooting, and the Cavs’ defense is suspect.
In the three prior matchups this season, the total went Under when it was set north of 230, and went Over when it was set below that.
I make the total for this game 237, and think one team should put up 120 points on their own.
It goes against the trend with Allen, but I think this is going to be a barnburner with the Bucks’ shooting and the Cavs’ general offensive firepower, even without Allen.
Pick: Cavaliers -10, Over 228.5
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Spurs vs. Kings Spread & Total Predictions
Kings +13.5
The Spurs are on a back-to-back after barely slipping by the Kawhi-less Clippers last night.
Victor Wembanyama will want to play but it might be a fight with the Spurs' doctors over his ankle as he tries to clear 65 games for awards eligibility. He’s missed 16 games but because the NBA is counting the Cup Final — for some reason — he has two games left he can miss.
Meanwhile, the Kings are… on a winning streak?
Right when they need to be losing games, the Kings are, of course, now playing great basketball and knocked off the Clippers the other night.
So, can the Kings keep the good times rolling against the No. 2 team in the West? No, but they can cover this number.
I make the spread for this game Spurs -7.2 with a composite model of current rankings, preseason priors, market ratings and Phythagorean expected rating. Just on this season’s data, I make it Spurs -20, which sounds about right, honestly.
The Spurs are 9-4 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season. There’s no real sense of who will play in this one as of this writing, but I won’t be surprised if some of the veterans like De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell miss this one, even if Wemby goes.
DeMar DeRozan has been playing great lately, and he’s the kind of player who can give the Spurs’ defense issues with his ability to get buckets.
I’m not saying I love betting the Kings here, but they are playing well right now, and the Spurs are in a lookahead / letdown spot coming off the Clippers game.
I’ll reluctantly take the points with Sacramento.
Under 235.5
I like the Under as well, based on recent defensive trends with San Antonio and the possibility of the Kings’ offense falling apart vs. the Spurs’ voracious defense.
Pick: Kings +13.5, Under 235.5
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