The NBA regular season is back in action with a loaded 10-game slate for this Tuesday. So, I've locked in picks for three of today's contests, including bets for Pistons vs. Cavaliers, Wizards vs. Magic, and Lakers vs. Pelicans.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Tuesday, March 3.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, March 3
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Wizards vs. Magic
The Magic are a mess right now. Their coach and star player are trading barbs in press conferences, and the team has had a nightmare of a year, from injuries to on-court performance.
So, surely the Wizards are the get-right game? Well, probably — but I still think it’s too many points.
For starters, Orlando is 0-2 this season when favored by double-digits. The Magic are just 4-4 ATS when favored by at least half this line (-8).
The Magic are 8-17 (32%) ATS when playing against a team that is under .500 ATS; they underperform against teams that underperform the market.
As a great sign of how this season has gone for Orlando, the Magic are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS when they have a rest advantage this season; they can’t even win the schedule spots.
I don’t have much here for the Wizards. It’s not like I can find tactical advantages with the mess they have made of their season.
The Wizards are not in a great ATS stretch (covered two in a row, woohoo!), and there’s no extra motivational spot.
The Wizards are 14-13 ATS against teams that are below .500 ATS though. They are just slightly better than market expectations when facing teams the market has had too much confidence in.
Orlando should win this game, and maybe they get angry and make a point by beating the Wizards to a pulp.
But a more likely scenario is another frustratingly close game that the Magic pull out so that they get the win but can’t feel good about it, while the Wizards lose another game before Trae Young makes his Wizards debut on Thursday.
In short, Orlando should never be favored by 15.5 points vs. anyone, not even a high school team.
I make the spread for this game Wizards +7.8. I’ll grab the points.
I like the Under here as well, I project this number at 228.
Orlando’s defense isn’t as good as last year’s, but Washington’s offense is just as bad as last year.
The Under is 13-9 when the opponent facing the Wizards (Orlando) has an above average over/under margin.
I get the idea of Orlando just dropping 140 on Washington; it’s entirely possible — but an uncomfortably close slugfest that’s just ugly overall makes a lot more sense.
Pick: Wizards +15.5 (-110)
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Pistons vs. Cavaliers
No Donovan Mitchell for the Cavaliers. The Pistons are mostly healthy. Isaiah Stewart returns from a three-game suspension tonight.
With Mitchell out, I make this spread Pistons -4.2.
The Cavaliers are 13-18 ATS this season at home, 0-2 as home 'dogs with a 17-point ATS differential.
Detroit is 8-5 ATS against divisional opponents this season, Cleveland is just 4-8.
The Cavaliers have obviously turned a wide corner the last few months and then added James Harden.
But the overall profile doesn’t suggest that Cleveland is going to avenge its close, short-handed loss last week.
Detroit’s ability to bust screens is a huge deal here.
The Pistons are the No. 1 pick-and-roll defense in the league this season, even better than Oklahoma City.
The Pistons manage to front-screen actions while not getting beat on the slip because they are so athletic and physical.
I wasn’t surprised the Cavaliers hung in last week because they were forced to play defensive-first lineups with the stars out.
But now that Harden is back, the Cavs will be in the middle between high-powered offensive and tough defensive lineups, and that probably won’t work vs. Detroit.
The Cavs are 6-14 SU this season vs. top-10 defenses with a -4.6 spread differential, which ranks 28th in the league. They simply have not been able to win or cover in scrappy games.
Detroit is low in three-point rate and percentage, but the Cavaliers are bottom-five defensively in both categories.
If you give the Pistons offense the ability to find more efficient looks with their elite defense, you are going to have a bad time.
I like Detroit down to -4.
I lean Over here, but don’t think it’s a great spot.
There’s no telling what the game script is here, if the Cavaliers go more offense and Detroit gets to score some — or, the Cavaliers try and program more defensively and it’s a slog.
Styles make fights, and we don’t know what this particular fight looks like vs. Detroit, especially with Harden and without Mitchell.
Harden's points prop is also a good look.
The Pistons' defense is tremendous, but they give up a lot of floaters and Harden has been taking that shot a lot so far with Cleveland; 1.6 attempts per game.
Plus, if the Pistons take away Evan Mobley after he had a big game last time, Harden will have to do more on his own.
Pick: Pistons -1.5 (-115)
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Pelicans vs. Lakers
Some trends:
- New Orleans is 10-4 as a double-digit dog this season.
- The Lakers are 4-1 when double-digit favorites. The one ATS loss? The Pelicans.
- The Pelicans are 19-18 ATS when Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III both play, and an incredible 18-9 ATS when Zion and Herb Jones play. Williamson has been upgraded to questionable for this game and Jones is good to go.
New Orleans surprisingly hangs in there. The Pelicans are bad, but they aren't completely lost. They went 6-4 ATS in the month of February.
The Lakers have proven time and time again they can’t beat any team with a pulse, and the Pelicans do have a pulse. They at least compete and have talent, which is more than the usual double-digit dog would say.
New Orleans’ offense has enough juice on the interior to attack the Lakers and make them sweat, and the Pelicans' perimeter defenders can at least shake up Austin Reaves and hang with the Lakers’ physicality.
This is a pretty bad trap spot for the Lakers with the Nuggets in Denver next on tap; a lookahead spot against a lottery team who doesn’t have their pick, so they have no reason to lose. Dangerous.
I lean slightly Over in this game, but not by much, so I’ll avoid the total.
The Pelicans' offense and defense can both vanish without a trace, and Lakers’ home Overs haven’t been as good lately.
I do think Trey Murphy has a huge game in what is basically an “audition” for a potential trade this summer.
Pick: Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
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