NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Bet Tyrese Maxey, Josh Hart and Alperen Sengun Saturday (November 12)
Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Hart #11 of the Portland Trail Blazers.
- Looking to bet some NBA props tonight?
- Well, you've come to the right place as Tyler Schmidt has a trio of props to choose from.
- Continue reading for Schmidt's picks.
The Association features an eight-game slate with a lot of intriguing matchups. This article will break down three player props that stood out tonight.
All bets are on DraftKings sportsbook, but be sure to shop around for the best odds as they adjust throughout the day.As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool as a guide for player projections.
Let’s jump into the top player prop bets and picks from Saturday’s slate of games.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Maxey, Under 5.5 Assists (-110)
|Hawks vs. 76ers||76ers -3|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Playing in a home-and-home series, the Hawks beat the 76ers Thursday 104-95. The 76ers will get a chance for revenge at home tonight as -3 favorites. With no James Harden commanding the offense, the 76ers look a bit different and have lost three of their last four.
Harden was second to Joel Embiid in Usage Rate, so with Harden sidelined there is more usage to go around to the backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton. Maxey has put up some huge scoring numbers this season, but has only gone over this assist prop once in his 12 games played.
The offseason addition of Dejounte Murray has really solidified the Hawks backcourt, especially on the defensive end of the court. Murray is tied for second in steals after leading the league last season. The Hawks also allow the fifth-fewest assists this season at 22.3 per game. Tough matchup for Maxey.
Our model has Maxey projected for only 4.3 assists tonight as the 76ers have a 112 implied total. In three games without Harden this season, Maxey is averaging 21.3 field goal attempts per game. He is a shoot-first point guard who will be clamped by one of the league’s best defensive guards in Murray.
Josh Hart, Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)
|Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -5.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
What a start to the season for the Portland Trail Blazers. They are 4-1 on this six-game road trip as it will come to an end today against the Dallas Mavericks. Despite Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic not playing last game, they beat the Pelicans by double digit points. It is surprising, but this team is rolling lately,
The Trail Blazers are 5.5-point road underdogs tonight with a very low 105.25 implied total. This game against the Mavericks is going to be played at a snail’s pace. With Luka Doncic taking things slow the Mavericks have played at the slowest Pace over the last two years, and the Trail Blazers rank 28th in Pace.
This Josh Hart prop is too high for Lillard back and most of the Trail Blazers healthy. Nurkic is questionable, but if he plays that will really hinder Hart’s rebounding upside. Through his first 12 games, Hart has gone under this prop line in eight games and is averaging 9.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.
Our model has Hart projected for only 14.8 points and rebounds tonight. This slow pace is not going to provide many opportunities to capture statistics. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 for Defensive Rating. Take the under due to a healthy Trail Blazers team and this slow and tough game environment.
Alperen Sengun, Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-115)
|Rockets vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -10.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
To be expected, but it has been a tough start to the season for the Houston Rockets. They are tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for the worst record in the league at 2-10. The Rockets are double-digit road underdogs against the New Orleans Pelicans who have everyone, including Zion Williamson, back and healthy.
Even though this game will likely be one-sided, the total is the highest on this six-game slate at 232 points. The Rockets love to play fast. They ranked second in Pace last season and are in the Top 10 again this year. The Pelicans have a great roster when healthy to push the pace and get their athletes in transition.
More possessions equals more opportunities for Alperen Sengun to pick up steals and blocks. The second-year pro is averaging 1.8 combined steals and blocks this season, but has averaged 3.5 in his last two games. The Pelicans play sloppy allowing the 11th-most steals and seventh-most blocks per game.
Sengun is projected for 2.6 steals and blocks tonight, which is well over this 1.5 prop line. In five of his last six games, Sengun is playing 29 or more minutes per game. The Rockets may get pummeled in this matchup, but with so many possessions projected in this game, Sengun can easily get over this prop line.