Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Is there Betting Value on Big Men?
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings center Dewayne Dedmon (13).
- Wednesday's 11-game NBA slate features five player prop bets providing value.
- This piece will focus on Knicks C Mitchell Robinson, Bulls G Coby White, Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns, Raptors C Marc Gasol, and Kings C Dewayne Dedmon
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Wednesday’s best props come from five of today’s 11 games:
- New York Knicks at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers: 7 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Knicks C Mitchell Robinson
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-115) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Robinson is a talented young big man, but he’s just not seeing enough playing time right now to make a real impact. He’s logged less than 20 minutes in each of his first three games this season, which makes sense after the Knicks signed what feels like 100 big men during free agency.
Robinson has still been effective in his limited playing time — he’s currently averaging 11.0 points per game — but that is buoyed by scoring 17 points vs. the Boston Celtics. He’s been below 10.5 points in two of his other three contests, so his median expectation should be well below 10.5.
We currently have Robinson projected for just 7.1 points, making this one of the stronger props of the day. I like it up to -150.
Bulls PG Coby White
THE PICK: Under 13.5 points (-125)
White has been solid to start his rookie season, averaging 13.8 points per game. That said, finding consistent minutes has been an issue. He’s logged just 22.2 and 16.1 minutes over his past two games, and he doesn’t appear likely to play more than that today.
The Bulls signed Tomas Satoransky to be their starting point guard during the offseason, and White still has to compete with Kris Dunn and Ryan Arcidiacono for minutes off the bench. White should earn more playing time as the season progresses, but expect him to be eased in gradually.
This is another example of mean vs. median prop betting. White’s mean scoring expectation is probably pretty close to 13.5 points, but his median expectation is going to be much lower. I like the under up to -140.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-134)
I backed the over on Towns’ assist prop in his last game, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He has taken on a much larger role as a facilitator in the Timberwolves’ offense this season. He’s currently averaging 7.3 potential assists per game (per NBA.com), and he’s managed to hand out at least four assists in two of his past three games.
This matchup vs. the 76ers could also be a good one for Towns’ assist upside. He has a brutal individual matchup vs. Joel Embiid, so he could look to operate more as a distributor than a scorer.
I’m going to continue playing the over on Towns’ assist prop until the books start to price him properly. I’d play it up to -155 in this matchup.
Raptors C Marc Gasol
THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (-115) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Gasol has pulled down double-digit boards in each of his past two games, but his rebounding prospects don’t look as rosy tonight. He has a matchup vs. Andre Drummond, who is one of the best rebounders in the league.
Gasol averaged 8.7 rebounds per game vs. the Pistons last season, but he needed an average of 34.8 minutes of playing time to get there. He’s played 25.9 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games, so his expectation for tonight’s matchup should be much lower.
Gasol has never really been an elite rebounder despite his size, so I think he’ll struggle in this matchup vs. Drummond. I’d play the under up to -125.
Kings C Dewayne Dedmon
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (-110)
I love this prop. Dedmon saw a big reduction in playing time in his last contest, logging just 16.9 minutes vs. the Denver Nuggets. Richaun Holmes saw significantly more playing time off the bench, and it’s possible he could even replace Dedmon in the starting lineup today.
Either way, it seems unlikely that Dedmon gets enough playing to score double-digits vs. the Hornets. He’s averaged just 10.8 points per 36 minutes this season, so he needs volume to factor into the box score.
This prop is way off, so I’m hammering it at the current odds. I’d be looking to play it at anything better than -175.