Thursday’s 3 Best NBA Player Props: Fade Giannis Against LeBron?
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s four games:
- Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:00 p.m. ET on TNT
- Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo
THE PICK: Over 5 assists (-143) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
We’ve had this date circled for awhile, and it’s finally here: Giannis vs LeBron, Bucks vs. Lakers, MVP vs. MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo has increased his scoring and rebounding numbers in each of his seven NBA seasons, which is pretty remarkable considering he won MVP last year.
But it’s his assists total that’s at stake here, and that’s the one Giannis stat that has stagnated a bit, down from 5.9 per game a year ago to 5.3 now. Those numbers are even lower over the last 10 games — just 3.5 dimes per game and under this line all but once.
So why are we going over?
The Bucks are missing Eric Bledsoe, so Giannis will have to run the offense a bit more, and the Lakers have the defenders to force Antetokounmpo to make someone else beat them. Our model has Giannis at 6.3 dimes, and the possible push at five gives you some cushion.
Ride the reigning MVP up to -160.
Clippers C Ivica Zubac
THE PICK: Under 6.5 rebounds (-134) | Under 7.5 points (-121) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Ivica Zubac is as close as the Clippers have to a “real” center. Zubac is the starter, but he’s a starter in name only, playing less than 17 minutes a game while Montrezl Harrell is out there for all of the important minutes.
Zubac could be in a really tough spot against the Rockets. Clint Capela has dominated on the boards and could give him trouble there, while James Harden will put Zubac in no man’s land on the pick-and-roll.
This simply is not the right matchup for Zubac. He’s averaging 8.2 points and 6.5 rebounds a game, but our model rates both of these unders as a 9 out of 10.
Despite the averages, Zubac has gone under both of these numbers in more than half of his games. If you agree this is the wrong matchup, you can fade Zubac entirely and play both unders.
I like the rebounding under better and will play that one up to -160, with the points prop up to -140.
Nets C Jarrett Allen
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-121) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Apparently the presence of DeAndre Jordan hasn’t exactly scared off Jarrett Allen. Allen has been the clear starter and has dominated on the boards, averaging 10.5 rebounds a game. He’s had double-digit rebounds in 11 of his last 12 games, with nine double-doubles and 11.9 boards a game during that stretch.
This line just doesn’t make sense. The Spurs don’t have anyone to match Allen athletically, and he should stay hot and put up double-digit rebounds again with ease.
I’m mashing this one all the way to -175 if needed, trying to grab it before the line inevitably moves up.