NBA Player Props: 3 Wednesday Picks for Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams & Jayson Tatum

NBA Player Props: 3 Wednesday Picks for Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams & Jayson Tatum article feature image
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Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Williams (Thunder)

NBA Player Props

After we saw the first two road wins this postseason last night, there are just two games on the docket tonight, and they're 1-8 matchups in each conference.

On Sunday, the Celtics took control early and cruised to a 114-94 victory over the Heat. Another strong defensive effort from the Celtics could lead to more rebound chances for Jayson Tatum.

Meanwhile, in Oklahoma City, Game 1 went down to the wire. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put the Thunder in front for good with a go-ahead three-point play with 32.1 seconds to go. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 28 points in the win.

Tonight, I like him to get some help from his young star teammates, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.

Check out all three of my top NBA player props for Wednesday's playoff games below.


Jayson Tatum More Than 9 Rebounds

Heat vs. Celtics | 7 p.m. ET

After clinching the final spot in the Eastern Conference with a victory over the Bulls on Friday, the Heat had a quick turnaround for Game 1 with a 1 p.m. tip on Sunday. With a couple of days off, they'll be more rested tonight, but I wouldn't expect much offensive production.

Through their first three Play-In/playoff games, Miami is averaging 103.3 points per game. In the regular season, it was 21st in offensive rating, and it's now without its best player, Jimmy Butler.

Miami failed to crack 100 points in Game 1 and was also -10 on the glass. Tatum basically made up that difference, as he pulled down 10 rebounds on Sunday.

Last year, he averaged 10.5 rebounds per game in 20 playoff games, seven of which were against Miami.

Tatum has averaged 10 rebounds per game over his last 15 games against Miami. He's reached this projection in 10 of those games and finished with eight in three others.

In Game 1, Tatum was efficient, as he capitalized on 10 of his 12 rebounding chances. In last year's Eastern Conference Finals, he averaged 15 rebounding chances per game.

If he has 15 tonight, he could hit this line by grabbing 60% of those opportunities.

Pick: Jayson Tatum More Than 9 Rebounds

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Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (+100)

Pelicans vs. Thunder | 9:30 p.m. ET

In his postseason debut, Jalen Williams had a solid game with 19 points, seven rebounds and four assists. He fell just short of this line, but there are several ways he could've gotten another point.

The simplest way is if he knocked down another free throw. In Game 1, Williams went 2-for-3 at the foul line after shooting 81% in the regular season.

Williams scored 19 points on 8-for-18 from the field and 1-for-5 from behind the arc. Williams shot 54% from the field and 42% from 3 in the regular season.

I don't expect Williams to sustain that high of a field goal percentage against better defensive teams in the playoffs, but he's an efficient scorer.

One more 3 would've also gotten him over this line, whether he made all of his free throws or not.

Additionally, Williams scored 26 points against New Orleans in the final regular-season meeting in a game that he had similar volume to Sunday night. In that game, Williams took 18 shots, six of which were 3s.

The difference is he made nine of those field goal attempts, half of his 3-point attempts and all five of his free-throw attempts.

On Sunday, he played 40 minutes compared to 34 in the final regular-season meeting.

If Williams plays upwards of 35 minutes tonight, I like his chances of scoring 20 points.

Pick: Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (+100)


Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Made 3s (-120)

Pelicans vs. Thunder | 9:30 p.m. ET

The Thunder only scored 94 points in Game 1, but their points were concentrated between their big three.

Chet Holmgren scored 15 points in Game 1, six of which off two 3-pointers. While Holmgren hit this line in Game 1, I like this play even more because six of his 14 field goal attempts were from deep.

Holmgren shot 37% from 3 in the regular season.

That means he hit this line while shooting slightly worse than he typically does.

Additionally, New Orleans was 24th in 3s allowed and 29th in 3-point attempts allowed per game in the regular season. It was middle of the pack in 3s allowed per game to centers.

Holmgren has made at least one 3 in all four meetings against the Pelicans this season, hitting this line in two of them.

The majority of his attempts on Sunday were wide open looks. New Orleans played center Jonas Valanciunas for 29 minutes in Game 1 to help exploit Oklahoma City on the glass. However, he didn't appear particularly interested in chasing Holmgren off the 3-point line.

If Holmgren gets several open looks again tonight, I expect him to make at least two 3s again.

He's also +300 on FanDuel to knock down three triples.

Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Made 3s (-120)

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Doug Ziefel
May 22, 2024 UTC