NBA Betting Picks: Our Favorite Playoff Bets for Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 (Sunday, Sept. 27)
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat, Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics.
- The Miami Heat are one win away from the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics are one win away from a Game 7.
- So where's the value in Game 6? Our NBA staff are betting a parlay of the spread and total, plus the first half total.
- See their analysis and bets for Sunday's Eastern Conference finals matchup.
The Boston Celtics seem to play better in must-win situations against the Miami Heat and face that exact scenario tonight in Game 6. In a series that has been extremely close, the Celtics might have found their rhythm after a huge second half. You can read the full Game 6 breakdown from Joe Dellera here.
The rest of our staff is here breaks down their favorite NBA bets for tonight’s Eastern Conference finals matchup:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Sunday NBA Betting Picks
Brandon Anderson: Celtics vs. Heat
|Celtics odds||-3 [BET NOW]|
|Heat odds||+3 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-150/+130 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||214.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
I remain on the Celtics in this matchup, as I have all series.
For the first time all series, the Celtics did not look like the better team in the first half of Game 5. They lacked energy and cohesion, had no flow or communication, and seemed to be just throwing guys out there and trying to find solutions. The fact that they won the game anyway on the brink of elimination only further bolsters my belief in them.
With a full Game 5 in view, it sure seems like the Celtics are starting to find answers for every wrinkle the Heat throw at them. Even with a horrible start, the Celtics found ways to score. They did it in the post, they did it big and small, and they did it against the zone.
They’re also doing it by increasing the pace as the over has hit in four of the five games. The Celtics are finding better looks earlier in the shot clock before the Heat can get the defense set, and the Celtics’ vaunted defense has ruined the Heat’s terrific 3-point shooting.
The Celtics are more talented and they’re healthier now with Gordon Hayward back and Bam Adebayo clearly not playing like himself. Even the coaching matchup that tilted in the Erik Spoelstra’s favor early in the series seems to have nudged toward Brad Stevens as he starts to find some answers.
I don’t see much value in the Celtics’ series line right now when you can just play the Celtics moneyline twice instead, so I’m looking for another way to boost their value when they remain listed as series underdogs.
The two highest-scoring games of this series (in regulation) have been Boston’s wins, when they hit 117 and 121 themselves. The Celtics are pushing the pace, getting good looks early, and maybe on their way to stealing this series. I’ll grab the Celtics against the spread and the over in a parlay.
The Pick: Parlay Celtics -3 + Over 214.5 (+264)
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Malik Smith: Celtics vs. Heat
The first-half over has hit in the past five potential closeout games this postseason — including Game 5 of this series — according to our Bet Labs database. That’s important to note considering the Celtics shot 40% from the field in the first half of that game and the Heat struggled to shoot well from 3-point range (22% in the first half).
The first half total in Game 6 (106.5 at PointsBet) slightly lower than it was on Friday. The Celtics may not have been efficient to start that game, but they pushed the pace, which has benefitted them in the playoffs.
I expect both teams to come out aggressive now that the Celtics have crept back in this series and I think a more efficient first half performance is in store as well. Both teams are averaging around 55 points per game in the first half and if they each play up to those levels, that would get us to 110 points. I’ll back the over 106.5 in the first half.
The Pick: Over 106.5
Top Player Prop
Miami Heat, Goran Dragic
The Prop: Over 4.5 Assists (+125) [DraftKings]
The revitalized Dragic has been a major component for the Heat in the bubble and is a huge reason why the team is one game away from the NBA Finals. Dragic has been able to score at will, but the Celtics have started use their length and physicality on defense to slow him down and make someone else beat them.
Riding a Heat player’s assist prop is sometimes tricky because the team does a great job of spreading the ball around and staying in constant motion so their assists come from all players. The Heat have assisted on more than 65% of their field goals in the postseason, so while the team spreads the wealth, there are going to be opportunities for Dragic to get to this number.
This total is right on line with Dragic’s playoff average of 4.5 and I believe that the price has me siding with the over. He has five dimes in two of the games this series and four in another two, and with the Celtics going to do all they can to slow him down on the scoring front, I think that we see some more facilitating from the veteran.
Our player prop tool rates this as a 10 out of 10 play and forecasts Dragic for six assists on Sunday night. You can find more of our top Game 6 props from Reed Wallach here.