NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Go All In on Jaylen Brown’s Scoring (Sunday, Sept. 27)
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics.
- If big-time players make big-time plays, we should expect some stars to perform at their peak in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
- Reed Wallach analyzes the top player props for tonight's matchup between the Celtics and Heat, including how to bet Jaylen Brown and Goran Dragic.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Bet Quality Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Odds as of Sunday at 12 p.m. ET.
Sunday’s player props come from Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals:
- Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics at 7:30 p.m ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 20.5 Points (-110) [DraftKings]
In must-win games, I continue to side with Brown going over his point total. While Jayson Tatum continues to be the primary option on offense, it is his fellow wing who has been consistently finding the bucket on offense.
Brown has gone over this number in each game this series besides Game 1 in which he scored 17 points. With the Celtics’ rotation tightening and the Heat defense keying in on Tatum and Kemba Walker, Brown has been the major beneficiary.
Shooting 51% from the 3-point line on a healthy five attempts per game, Brown has quietly strung together a very impressive series. This number underrates Brown’s scoring prowess and his aggressive mentality throughout this series.
Our Player Prop tool projects Brown to have 22.6 points, more than two points off the implied total. I would play this number all the way up to -130 and expect to see Brown attack early and often.
Miami Heat, Goran Dragic
The Prop: Over 4.5 Assists (+125) [DraftKings]
The revitalized Dragic has been a major component for the Heat in the bubble and is a huge reason why the team is one game away from the NBA Finals. Dragic has been able to score at will, but the Celtics have started use their length and physicality on defense to slow him down and make someone else beat them.
Riding a Heat player’s assist prop is sometimes tricky because the team does a great job of spreading the ball around and staying in constant motion so their assists come from all players. The Heat have assisted on more than 65% of their field goals in the postseason, so while the team spreads the wealth, there are going to be opportunities for Dragic to get to this number.
This total is right on line with Dragic’s playoff average of 4.5 and I believe that the price has me siding with the over. He has five dimes in two of the games this series and four in another two, and with the Celtics going to do all they can to slow him down on the scoring front, I think that we see some more facilitating from the veteran.
Our player prop tool rates this as a 10 out of 10 play and forecasts Dragic for six assists on Sunday night.
Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics
The Prop: Under 4.5 Assists (+102) [FanDuel]
We match a Heat point guard’s assist prop with a Celtics point guard’s assist prop. Walker has dished out five or more assists in three of the first five games of this series, so the odds seem likely that he’ll do it again on Sunday, right?
It’s possible, but if you pull back the curtain, there is more to it. Walker reached five or more assists in five of the previous 11 games this postseason, under 50%.
I think that recency bias is providing an edge to bettors here by making Kemba’s under an even money play. Even though he has now went over this total in half his playoff games, Kemba may be in line for a statistical correction after this string of high assist performances.
This is purely a numbers play as too many times we are having to eat a heavy price tag on props. At even money bet on Walker regressing to the mean. I would play this to -110.