NBA Playoffs Storylines & Analysis: The Sun Sets In Phoenix, Luka Struggles, Knicks Rebound Everything

Let's take a look at the latest NBA playoff storylines following Sunday's excellent slate of action with an early market report and analysis, plus some bets for Monday.

NBA Playoffs Storylines & Analysis: Monday, April 29

76ers vs. Knicks

The Big Morning Narrative

Jalen Brunson set the Knicks playoff scoring record as injured Embiid once again struggles down the stretch. Also the Knicks got all the rebounds. All of them.

The Nerd Adjustment: Anunoby On Embiid

You can put a small on a big in the NBA and get away with it. That's not a secret; with how the game is called in 2024, if bigs try to exert their strength advantage, they'll get called for offensive fouls. The smalls can challenge their dribble while limiting their aggressiveness.

Putting smaller defenders with strength on big centers is a popular tactic. You see it routinely with teams facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. The Raptors, for years, have put OG Anunoby on Jokic to slow him down. On Saturday, with Isaiah Hartenstein in foul trouble, Tom Thibodeau put Anunoby on Joel Embiid.

The Sixers couldn't solve it.

Embiid was 0-5 in the 4th with just one point and a -5.

Some of it is just bad luck. This is a good look even with a soft double coming.

But look at how Anunoby denies the ball here. The Sixers try to force a switch with a Kyle Lowry screen and the Knicks completely deny that attempt. Then Anunoby fights him off for so long that by the time Embiid catches, he's up against the clock and out of position.

They also didn't leave Anunoby in space when Embiid caught the ball in triple threat (shoot, pass, drive) position. The double comes here and the rotation's on point. Maxey gets the edge, but the interior spacing is messed up so it results in a makeable shot but not a good look.

If Embiid reverses the ball when the double comes, the weak side has an open three. But that's what the Knicks want: anyone but Embiid or Maxey shooting is a win for them.

The one thing that works best vs. these kind of alignments — and something Jokic has stated in the past he prefers to do when guarded by a small — is to put them into pick and rolls. Guards and wings are not used to defending pick and rolls as the screener or big defender instead of the ball-handler.

The issue with this is that doing so means putting Anunoby, arguably the Knicks' best defender, onto Tyrese Maxey if he runs it. But Maxey is 5-of-9 from the field with Anunoby defending him in this series. It might have been worth it. The one possession the Sixers did put Anunoby in pick and roll, with Kelly Oubre handling, Oubre scored.

This is a beatable scheme. It's nothing new or that Embiid hasn't seen before. Nurse has seen it; he's used it with Anunoby before. But the problem is that the Knicks may have pushed too many buttons in this series after Game 1's bench craziness, Game 2's maniacal ending, and now Game 4's strategic twist. The Knicks don't have to solve the Sixers forever. They just have to win one more game.

Room and Board

Not every Knick went over their rebound prop on Saturday. It just felt like it. Specifically, it was actually just Precious Achiuwa, Josh Hart (again!), and Anunoby. Hart and Anunoby went for 31 rebounds combined. THIRTY-ONE. The Sixers, as a team, had 42.

So far in this series, the Knicks have a 77-39 second-chance points advantage. The Knicks have only had fewer offensive rebounds than their opponent in two playoff games between the 2023 and 2024 playoff runs so far.

Kelly Oubre and Tobias Harris just can't do anything with Hart and Anunoby. I will say, having watched them, a lot of these rebounds were truly insane bounces. Some of them were a product of the Knicks missing so badly that the Sixers being in the right place actually cost them and the ball would just spin right to wherever the Knicks were standing. I'm not going to break them all down; you can watch them on your own, but there was some pretty bad luck with a lot of these.

That said, like everything else in this series, it matters much less about whether or not the Knicks can keep relying on these things because they've relied on them and won three games, which is probably all that matters.

Game 5

The Knicks opened as 5.5-point favorites in Tuesday's Game 5, and the Sixers immediately took the money, moving this to -4. It makes sense; the Sixers probably should have won at least one of Games 1 and 2. All three Knicks wins have been pretty wacky. On the other hand, that's how sports go, and once you get downhill, there's a big mental edge that gets established.

A bizarre stat? Teams up 3-1 at home after winning Game 4 are 53-13 straight up in Game 5, but just 30-35-1 ATS (46%), with a slightly negative ATS margin since 2003. So the teams in the Knicks' position almost always win, but covering is much tougher. This is just the sixth time since 2003 that a team up 3-1 has been less than a 4.5-point favorite in this spot.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

The Big Morning Narrative

The Clippers snatched victory from the jaws of the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard behind notoriously clutch playoff performer James Harden (?!) while Luka Doncic struggled (?!) Jason Kidd benched his star rookie big and paid the price. The Clippers are 2-0 without Kawhi in this series. This game was amaze-balls.

The Big Adjustment: Ty Lue Countered Dallas' Small Ball

Maxi Kleber was a big adjustment from Jason Kidd towards the end of Game 1 and played a big part in the Game 2 win. He's switchable and can spread the floor, which makes it harder to play a bit with him on the court.

But the Clippers, without Kawhi Leonard clogging the paint, knew they could attack the rim with a lob threat in Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee without worrying about Kleber's rim protection. So James Harden went downhill over and over against them. Especially with Luka Doncic defending.

So the Clippers have played Daniel Gafford (18 minutes) largely off the floor, and punished Maxi Kleber. So Dallas is down to Dereck Lively who has been awesome in his first playoff series. The question will be if Lively can hold up either in switches or drop coverage if Harden or Paul George target him. He might, he's been really good. But much of his defensive success has been as a help defender.

The Clippers went back to heavy pick-and-roll after moving away from it in Games 2 and 3 (notably with Leonard in the lineup). It worked; they scored 0.96 points to Dallas' 0.91 in pick and roll including passes via Synergy Sports.

When Luka Awakens

The Mavericks are +32 in Luka's minutes in this series. They are -35 when he sits. He's sat for 19 minutes. That's it.

All this, and Doncic is shooting 38% from the field and 30% from 3. If he starts hitting shots, it's going to be a huge problem for the Clippers.

Game 5

The Mavericks opened as 2.5-point road favorites in Game 5, based on the presumption that Leonard won't play. There were some early lines that actually had the Mavericks as dogs but they were bet into oblivion quickly. The total opened 211.5 and then shifted to 209.

I actually lean towards the over based on both the likelihood of Doncic regressing to the mean and how the rotations are shifting. If the Mavericks can't play Kleber and switch everything, that's going to make life easier on Harden and Paul George. It will get the Mavericks in rotation and free up their shooters at home. And with Lively, the Mavs will play more in transition.

The side seems dangerous, since it assumes the Clippers are worse without Leonard when that hasn't been the case, but historically road Game 5 favorites have done well (9-7 SU and ATS).

Bucks vs. Pacers

The Big Morning Narrative

The Bucks' season is almost over thanks to injuries.

Much Ado About Nothing

The Bucks were game for a while but couldn't hang when the Pacers found their three-point stroke. In reality, there's little to take away from this. The Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Without Giannis, they simply didn't have a real chance in this series against what is a bad matchup for them.

There's no tactical stuff to break down, except to say that Bucks fans and front office will want a mulligan for this season due to the late season injuries. But it needs to be noted how easily the Pacers cracked open the Bucks' defense from all angles. Giannis can't plug all those holes in the ship. There are broader problems with the roster and scheme that need to be addressed.

Game 5

The Pacers are 3.5-point favorites in Milwaukee with a total of 216.5. The Bucks seem ready to be done. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays, there will be a big line movement towards the Pacers which will put value on Indiana but this is also a tough spot with a young, inexperienced team trying to close out a veteran squad.

Suns vs. Timberwolves

The Big Morning Narrative

Anthony Edwards is That Dude. The Suns Are Not It. Changes are coming.

The Sun Sets In Phoenix

Frank Vogel is likely getting scapegoated for this disaster in Phoenix. Kevin Young, the guy responsible for the Suns' offense, quietly took the BYU job this week just before Kevin Durant was reported to have been uncomfortable with the offense all year.

Vogel was given a limited roster built around three stars who didn't fit together or make one another better, one big man who fouls too much, Grayson Allen, and a cast of minimum contract guys and asked to make them into a super contender. That he's being scapegoated again for the failure of front offices to understand that teams have to actually be teams and not just collections of hoopers with some dudes around is a shame.

For Durant, he left Golden State under a cloud of acrimony despite winning two titles. He joined up with Kyrie in Brooklyn, saw Kenny Atkinson fired, saw Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert shipped out for James Harden along with Spencer Dinwiddie, saw Steve Nash fired, demanded a trade when the Nets wouldn't put up with Irving's Kyrie-ness, saw Monty Williams fired after a second-round exit, saw Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton shipped out, and now will have seen Vogel come and go.

His ability to be the focal point of a contender, despite what was an absolutely incredible individual season, has never been more doubtful, and it's entirely about things that don't have anything to do with his incredible skill.

Devin Booker got absolutely trounced by Anthony Edwards in the battle of the young star shooting guards and at age 27 is no longer the young up and coming superstar. He's the guy who was the best player on a Finals team that has seen his team get worse every season since.

There's no telling what happens with Phoenix. They might run it back. They might tear it down. KD might ask out; he's done it before. Booker might ask out; we've seen stars pull that card. (Teams inquired about Booker at the deadline and were rebuffed as swiftly as you would assume.)

They need cohesion and an actual team again. Swapping out coaches isn't going to magically make that happen.

For the Wolves, they get to rest up and prepare for what is likely — but not definitely — the biggest series in franchise history against the Denver Nuggets, with apologies to 2004 Wolves-Lakers.

What I'm Betting Monday

Thunder -4.5 (-115) at Pelicans

Top-two seeds in the first round with a 3-0 lead and a chance to sweep favored by more than 4 points are 19-6 straight up, 16-9 ATS since 2003. The Thunder have shot the lights out, but they've also done that because the Pelicans can't slow them down. Willie Green will try and counter with more smallball and it's just not a winning tactic to lean into OKC's strengths.

Lakers ML (+255) at Nuggets

Jamal Murray is questionable and yet this line did not move. If Murray is out, it's a big deal; the Nuggets are just 7-11 straight up this season when any of their starters is out vs. a team over .500. The Lakers have held double digit leads in every game of this series and finally got over the hump on Saturday. The Nuggets should win. But the price is good enough to bet on the start of what would be the most incredible comeback since the 2016 Cavaliers upset the Warriors.