The NBA regular season is back in action with a solid 10-game slate this Monday. So, I've locked in five picks spanning three of today's contests, including bets for Bucks vs. Magic, Cavaliers vs. Nuggets, and Thunder vs. Lakers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, February 9.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Monday, February 9
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Bucks vs. Magic
Bucks +11
The Magic simply aren’t good as favorites. They are 14-22 this season as a favorite, and 9-14 against teams with a win percentage above 35 percent.
But the real trick? Orlando is flat-out terrible against bad ATS teams.
This season, when facing opponents that have an ATS margin below league-average, Orlando is 6-14 ATS (30%). They do not cover against teams that don’t cover — and the Bucks don’t cover.
Orlando barely got past the Jazz, who quite literally started pulling all their good players in a panic because they were leading; that’s how much they want to tank.
The Bucks are not tanking. They want to win, compete, and show Giannis Antetokounmpo they are not completely lost. If they were tanking, this would be a stay-away, because Orlando just can’t be trusted to cover as a favorite. But Milwaukee is not tanking.
Ryan Rollins can get downhill, and Milwaukee still has a number of good shooters.
The Bucks are still 3rd in eFG% this season. The one thing they can do is shoot. They just can’t rebound, or stop turning the ball over, or draw free throws, or generate shots at the rim.
The Magic are 4-11 ATS this season against top-10 eFG% teams.
This is the time of year when you don’t get to take the sneaky good teams that the market is late on; that time is past us.
It’s time to go dumpster diving, and man, the Bucks stink. But they are the side to bet here.
Pick: Bucks +11
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Cavaliers vs. Nuggets
Cavaliers +1
This is a nightmare matchup for the Nuggets.
The Cavaliers have won the last three games against Denver with Donovan Mitchell.
There’s just too much space for the Nuggets to cover, and the Cavaliers have a great lob threat with Jarrett Allen.
Nikola Jokic can’t defend the lob because he doesn’t jump.
So, he’s going to drop mid-way on Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, and that means the Nuggets have to crash from the low-man spot on the rolling Jarrett Allen, which opens up the corner three.
Denver gives up the third-most corner threes in the league.
The problem is that with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson out, this means Jamal Murray, Jalen Pickett, Bruce Brown, or Julian Strawther trying to crash, they will both give up the lob and get stuck trying to recover.
That’s on top of Harden and Mitchell just rattling floaters in over and over.
Defensively, Denver is a wagon, still, even with their injuries, but Cleveland has great rim protection and better balance. Joker will get his, but the defense is simply too bad without Gordon.
Over 239.5
This trend needs to come to your attention.
This season when Nikola Jokic plays and Aaron Gordon does not, the over is 20-4. It’s 16-4 when the total is over 230. The average total is 235.5, and it STILL goes over at that rate.
The Nuggets’ defense cannot tie their shoes without Aaron Gordon.
It’s not that Gordon is a fundamentally elite defender, it’s that Gordon knows how to defend around Jokic, and the supporting cast doesn’t know how to cover for Jokic’s liabilities without him.
The opponent went over their team total in 16 of those 24 games, and the Nuggets have gone over in 18 of those 24.
As I noted above, the Nuggets face a defensive issue with this particular matchup, and every team faces a defensive issue against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.
Even the Cavs’ bench minutes are going to be an advantage; Dennis Schröder will attack Jonas Valanciunas in drop coverage.
The Nuggets are also without their best defender going over screens, Peyton Watson, against a heavy pick-and-roll team.
The trends are there, the matchups are there, the number is soft. Over.
Pick: Cavaliers +1, Over 239.5
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Thunder vs. Lakers
Lakers +7
There's nothing like kicking off your week by betting on the Lakers without Luka Doncic against the best team in the league.
But here’s the reality: the Thunder need Shai Gilgeous-Alexander more than last year. They are 1-3 ATS so far without Shai in 2026, with the one cover coming against the notoriously tanking Jazz.
The Lakers, meanwhile, are 5-4 ATS without Luka Doncic, and 4-3 when Austin Reaves played when Luka’s out (2-1 ATS with Reaves and LeBron, no Luka).
The Thunder simply can’t generate offense without Shai, and the Lakers’ offense has such an impossibly high floor with either of Reaves or Doncic available.
Jalen Williams is back for Oklahoma City, but he’s struggled a lot this season and just hasn’t been healthy.
Without Shai and Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder don’t have a primary pick-and-roll offensive weapon outside of Cason Wallace.
The concern is the turnover rate; the Thunder are 59% ATS the last two seasons against teams with an above-average turnover rate. They rip the ball from you and score.
The Thunder game against Houston is actually a warning sign here.
On the one hand, they hung with Houston the entire game despite the injuries because they’re tough. On the other hand, they lost, and Houston pulled away despite a world of chemistry issues, their primary identity going away with the Steven Adams injury (offensive rebounding), and the fact they were missing Amen Thompson.
Should the Thunder be favored by more than a possession against any playoff team on the road, without Shai? My answer is no.
Austin Reaves will create enough offense, LeBron will attack, the Lakers’ forwards and bigs will get some offensive rebounds, and the Lakers will hang within the number.
Over 223
This is a great over spot.
So, I just talked about how the Thunder can’t score as well without Shai. However, they are going to force enough turnover against the Lakers to create transition points, and that will even up the scoring.
Meanwhile, this trend is dynamite: the over is 8-1 in Lakers games without Luka Doncic, 6-1 with Reaves and without Luka, and 3-1 with LeBron and without Luka.
The Thunder give up corner threes routinely, and the addition of Luke Kennard looms large here. He’s not a volume shooter; he’s too tight with the trigger. But he’s an efficiency machine. Rui Hachimura will get looks, too.
Jaxson Hayes’ athleticism matches up well with Holmgren and Hartenstein for activity.
The Lakers’ defense remains terrible, and Cason Wallace will find opportunities to slice this team.
The over is a great play in this spot.
Pick: Lakers +7, Over 223
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