The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent slate of games on Tuesday night, with a total of six matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in five picks spanning three of tonight's contests, including bets for Magic vs Wizards, Timberwolves vs Heat, and Lakers vs Pelicans.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Tuesday, January 6.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Tuesday, January 6
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Magic vs. Wizards
Another game where the market has moved against me. We press on.
Orlando is playing pretty bad basketball right now, and the Wizards are suddenly trying to win.
They’ve slowed their pace dramatically, and as a result, they are outside of the bottom five in both offense and defense over the past eight games.
That’s not much to write home about, but it matters when you’re catching almost two possessions against a team that is in struggle-mode like the Magic.
Some trends:
- The Wizards are 9-7 against below-.500 ATS teams. So they cover, and only cover, against teams who don’t cover.
- Meanwhile, Orlando is just 4-9 ATS against teams under .500 ATS. So, they don’t cover against the bad ATS teams.
- The Magic played, and beat, the Pacers last. Teams are 12-23 ATS (34%) ATS after playing Indiana this season. Something about playing the Pacers affects them. After covering, that number drops to 5-13 (28%).
- Orlando is 3-5 ATS without Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner
The Wizards haven’t been good at home ATS, but the Magic have been bad on the road too (25th).
Washington has improved its halfcourt defense by eight points per 100 possessions over the last five games. It might be a blip, but I also think Washington tanked its early season enough to ensure it retains its top-eight protected pick and now is going to try and win a little bit before the All-Star break — and then tank again in March to end the season.
(My win total over bet on the Wizards laments these decisions.)
Pick: Wizards +7.5
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Heat vs. Timberwolves
Heat +7
This is a market analysis more than anything.
These two teams played in Miami last week and the line was Heat -2.5.
The Wolves killed them, but you aren’t going to see a power rating get adjusted that much off one game.
The spread for this game is Wolves -7 now, indicating a11.5-point line move? The biggest difference being that Jaime Jaquez is out, but there’s no way Jaquez is moving the line this much.
So, why on Earth would this line move eight points due to a homecourt flip when homecourt has mattered less than ever?
Miami is the 5th-best road ATS team; Minnesota is 26th at home.
I understand the Wolves annihilated them and are playing well right now. But I can’t get here.
I make this number Wolves -2.9, given that the Wolves are -2.2 average in ATS differential at home.
These teams are a lot closer than this line suggests and I’m unmoved by Jaquez’ value to the spread for a 26 percent 3-point shooter.
Under 238
The under in games where the Wolves face an above-league-average pace opponent is 9-3 this season, and the under in Wolves games is 12-6. Miami games are .500 over/under on the road so it doesn’t lean either direction, but when the Heat lost the previous matchup to a team, the under is 11-8.
I project this at 232, giving us room to take the under.
Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
McDaniels is shooting 55 percent from three over his last eight games, but this is all about the opponent.
Miami allows the 10th-highest corner 3-pointer rate of any team this season. It’s a function of how they defend and a byproduct of how often they use zone.
McDaniels, on the other hand, is 45 percent on corner threes this season, compared to 39 percent on all other shots.
Miami also plays at the fastest pace team in the league — and while they actually force the 28th-ranked defensive possession length (they make you take more time finding a shot), the sheer volume of possessions created by their speed bumps up those numbers.
This line is 0.6 above where McDaniels has been over the last eight games, but given the specific matchup combo, I’ll play it.
Pick: Heat +7, Under 238, Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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Lakers vs. Pelicans
Similar cap to the McDaniels play here.
The Pelicans give up the highest percentage of corner threes out of total shots in the league, and since Vanderbilt’s return, he’s shooting 41 percent from the corners.
JJ Redick has absolutely blasted this team for its defensive effort over the last month, and the one thing you can expect from Vanderbilt is a high defensive effort, even if his defensive impact is a little overrated.
I wouldn’t ladder this given his minutes and shot opportunities, but I like the number directly at 1+ (-103).
Pick: Jarred Vanderbilt 1+ Three-Pointers Made
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