The NBA regular season is back with an excellent slate of games on Wednesday night, with a total of nine matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for four of tonight's contests, including bets for Cavaliers vs Rockets, Heat vs Warriors, and Pelicans vs Nuggets.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Wednesday, November 19.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Wednesday, November 19
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Hornets vs. Pacers
This is a little bit of a play on the idea that the extremely movable object can hold back the very resistable force.
The Hornets have the worst halfcourt defense in the league, but the Pacers have the worst halfcourt offense.
It’s a better matchup for Charlotte’s offense, so I don’t want the combined total.
I project Indiana at just 109.6 points here.
Charlotte’s defense has been slightly better as of late, and that’s really all you need to slow down Indiana.
The Pacers have only scored over this line twice this season.
Charlotte’s offense is actually surprisingly slow, 22nd in shortest possession length via DunksAndThrees.com.
So, I’m hoping that slows down the pace.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 118.5
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Rockets vs. Cavaliers
Houston’s offense being this good is amazing, a revelation, and a good opportunity to beat the market.
Their team total is 9-3 to the over this season, including 5-1 on the road. They are the No. 1 over team on the road so far this season.
The Cavaliers are inconsistent, but they have one particular strength defensively: they force the 4th-most turnovers.
Houston has kept their turnovers down even without a point guard, but still rank 18th.
That leads to easier transition opportunities for Cleveland.
Sengun��s ability to operate out of the high post or extended post makes more room for cutters, and the Cavaliers don’t have the best tracking off-ball wings, even with Evan Mobley’s defensive cleanup.
There’s also the fact that the spread suggests this game will be tight (I make it right under the number at Cavs +1), and that could mean free throws late to extend the game or overtime.
Pick: Over 234.5
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Warriors vs. Heat
I like this paired with Miami moneyline: teams facing opponents on the last leg of a cross-conference road trip (longer flights, time zone changes, etc.) are 73% SU since 2003.
- When Kerr’s teams are on a 3rd-in-4 nights back to back road game, the over is 18-14.
- When Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are not on the floor, the Warriors’ pace is considerably higher, and their turnover rate jumps to 18%, leading to easier buckets for Miami.
- Miami has gone over their team total in five of their six home games this season.
- When Miami has more or equal rest to their opponent, the over is 6-3 this season.
Golden State’s young guys will run if the Warriors sit the veterans, and Miami will continue to push pace.
Pick: Over 233.5
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Nuggets vs. Pelicans
On the surface, this is tough because I’m banking on corner threes for Herbert (38% from there this season) against the No. 1 team in not allowing those shots in Denver.
But Christian Braun is out, and he’s their best perimeter defender.
Peyton Watson is athletic and good at pressure and pestering, but isn’t as fundamentally sound in driving players where he should, and that forces rotations.
Once you get Denver in rotation, those corner threes come in bunches.
Under James Borrego, and against a defense that isn’t the Thunder, I’m expecting a better shot diet for the Pelicans, and more chances for Jones to make an impact from the corner or elsewhere.
Pick: Herb Jones Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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