The NBA playoffs resume this Friday, as two pivotal Game 3s take center stage tonight — and our NBA betting expert Joe Dellera has identified a trio of player prop picks showing significant value spanning both of today's contests: Knicks vs. 76ers and Spurs vs. Timberwolves.
Let's get into the breakdown of his three NBA prop picks for Jalen Brunson, Paul George, and Naz Reid on Friday, May 8.
NBA Prop Picks for Friday, May 8
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Knicks vs. 76ers Prop Pick: Paul George
Paul George Over 16.5 Points (-110)
If you’re looking for a smash spot tonight, look no further than Paul George. The environment in Philly should be the best we’ve seen for the 76ers all series — and with the Sixers effectively in a must-win mode, they are going to throw the kitchen sink at New York schematically. That leads me right to PG.
The track record in this series alone is already there. He has cleared this line in both games so far, putting up 17 points and 19 points in the first two contests.
We’ve seen the market struggle to price him correctly; his line closed at a juiced 14.5 in Game 1 and jumped to 17.5 in Game 2 when Joel Embiid was out.
Whether Embiid is in or out tonight, I’m firing. If Joel sits, this line is going to rocket up to 18.5 immediately, but even with Joel on the floor, the opportunities are going to be there.
George has been awesome since coming back from his suspension, averaging 19.2 points per game and clearing the 15.5 mark in 17 of his last 20 games. He is playing with an aggression we haven't seen from him in a while, and the Knicks simply don't have the personnel to stop him right now.
With OG Anunoby likely sidelined, the defensive landscape for George changes completely. You’re taking away a premier defensive stopper and forcing the Knicks to pivot. Who covers him now? Maybe they try Josh Hart, or—heaven forbid—they try to hide Jalen Brunson on him, which would be a massive mistake. Maybe we even see Karl-Anthony Towns get a look.
The bottom line is that without OG on the floor for New York, there isn't a great defensive option left to contain PG.
Pick: Paul George Over 16.5 Points (-110)
Knicks vs. 76ers Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-112)
If Embiid is on the floor for Game 3, Brunson Over 26.5 Points is as close to an auto-play as it gets.
The logic here is simple, and the data from Game 2 is staggering. Embiid was giving up 1.6 points per possession when he was put into the pick-and-roll. To put that in perspective, that is the same efficiency as Brunson standing at the charity stripe for two free throws every single time down the court. That is simply terrible half-court defense.
With Anunoby expected to sit, the Knicks are losing their second-leading postseason scorer. In that scenario, New York is going to lean even further into "The Jalen Brunson Experience."
The game plan is obvious: put Joel in action. They are going to put him in pick-and-roll sets repeatedly to make him move, make him tired, and force him to defend in space. It’s the best way to neuter what he can do on the offensive end, and it happens to be the most efficient way for New York to generate buckets.
Brunson is historically elite against the Sixers, and with those Villanova roots, he treats Philly like a home game. He’s averaging 25 points per game against them this season, and that’s including a weird eight-point dud in February where the Knicks won by nearly 50 and he barely had to play.
Brunson scored 35 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2, following a string of 30-plus point performances against Philly earlier in the year. If Embiid is out there, it’s food for Jalen.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-112)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prop Pick: Naz Reid
Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-104)
If you look at what Naz Reid has done so far this series, he scored 12 in Game 1 and 11 in Game 2. What I love about that is the high floor we’re seeing.
Even in that Game 2 disaster where Minnesota got run off the floor and Naz only played about 21 minutes, he still almost cleared this number.
When you dig into the matchup against San Antonio, Naz is just such a problem for them because he helps stretch the floor in ways their bigs don't want to deal with. We’ve seen these small-ball looks perform decently well against the Spurs’ length.
During the regular season, Naz gave San Antonio fits—scoring 15 and 17 points in the games where he played meaningful minutes. He had one game where he got hurt early, but outside of that, he’s consistently found his way into double digits against this defense.
The volume should be there tonight. In Game 1, he played 30 minutes. In Game 2, that dropped to 21, but a lot of that was just due to the lopsided score.
With the series shifting back to Minnesota, the Timberwolves are in a spot where they’re trying to maintain the home-court advantage they stole in the opener. So, I expect Naz to see minutes closer to the 30-mark again.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 11.5 Points (-104)
