The Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0) and Indiana Pacers (0-0) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are favored by -7.5 on the spread (Thunder -7.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. The Thunder are -330 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Pacers are +265 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, October 23.
My Thunder vs Pacers Prediction
- Thunder vs Pacers pick: Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
My Thunder vs Pacers best bet is on Andrew Nembhard to go over 10.5 rebounds + assists, with the best price currently available at DraftKings.
As always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Pacers Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 228.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Thunder vs Pacers NBA Preview
The Thunder and Pacers meet on Thursday night in a rematch of last season's NBA Finals. OKC is coming off a double-overtime victory at home against the Rockets. And while the 2025-26 campaign tipped off on Tuesday night, Indiana is one of just two teams yet to make its season debut.
I'll focus more on the Pacers here, since I already took an in-depth look at the Thunder on opening night.
Typically, this would be a spot that benefits Indiana, given its rest and an opponent that played two extra periods a few days ago. However, it'll begin the year with some injury concerns, as two-time All-Star and All-NBA Third Team point guard Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season.
To make matters worse, backup point guard T.J. McConnell has a hamstring issue that'll sideline him for roughly three weeks.
As a result, the Pacers are 7.5-point underdogs at home, and last season, we saw how they struggled in Game 7 once Haliburton suffered his Achilles injury.
The Pacers will also have to overcome some personnel changes following Myles Turner's offseason departure to the Bucks as a free agent. As a 6-foot-11 center who offered a threat from the perimeter, Turner played a key role in Indiana's offense with his ability to provide spacing by stretching the floor.
Turner ranked second on the team in 3-point attempts (5.5 per game) and was also their third-best shooter from beyond the arc (39.6%). Filling his void could be a massive challenge for Indiana this season, as that responsibility might fall to center James Huff, who joined the Pacers over the summer following a trade that sent a 2029 second-round pick to Memphis and the right to swap second-round picks in 2031.
Huff shot 40.5% from the perimeter with the Grizzlies last season, averaging 3.1 attempts per game. He's a career 40.4% shooter from downtown, but has only made two starts in four years since joining the league.
For a team that doesn't operate in one of the major markets, Indiana has less room for error and had to build its roster meticulously through the draft.
Thus, while the Pacers have tremendous depth, they'll face an immediate test as they try to navigate the early part of the season with some key players sidelined.
Thunder vs Pacers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Pacers did a tremendous job sharing the basketball last season, ranking third in assists with an average of 29.2 per game. Haliburton played a major role in that success, dishing out 9.2 assists per game. Interestingly, Indiana's starting two-guard, Andrew Nembhard, also posted point guard numbers, averaging 5.0 assists.
Haliburton, McConnell and Nembhard were collectively responsible for 64% of the team's assists. With Nembhard being the only healthy player out of the trio, I'd expect him to carry the load as Indiana's primary facilitator.
Indiana remains well-stocked at the shooting guard position, with players like Bennedit Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard capable of contributing. Still, Nembhard is the most natural passer among that group.
Given the current roster situation, I'd expect an increase in Nembhard's usage, making the over on his rebounds + assists prop of 10.5 extremely enticing. This is a rare scenario for Nembhard, as he'll be playing without the team's two primary point guards on the team — something that never happened last season.
That context makes things tricky for bookmakers, who need to adjust for those absences. With Nembhard already an effective passer even when playing off the ball, we could see him put up Haliburton-type numbers if the Pacers hand the Gonzaga product the keys to the offense.
Pick:Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
Spread
I lean Thunder -7.5.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting the over/under. However, I lean Under 228.5.
Pacers vs Thunder Betting Trends
