The Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) and Los Angeles Lakers (0-3) will square off in Game 4 of their second-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will stream live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -520 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is priced at +390 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals on Monday, May 11.
Thunder vs Lakers Prediction
- Thunder vs Lakers pick: Thunder -10.5 (-115)
My Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread (-10.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Lakers Odds for Game 4
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 214.5 -112o / -108u | -520 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 214.5 -112o / -108u | +390 |
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Thunder vs Lakers NBA Playoffs Game 4 Preview
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
The Thunder are a buzzsaw right now. When you look at the stats through the first three games, the "Four Factors" tell you one thing, but the eye test tells you they are much more dominant than that.
Collectively, the media has been tweeting that OKC might go 16–0 and crush everyone, and while they haven't necessarily blown the doors off their opponent every single quarter, they are just better at almost everything that matters in a playoff setting.
The Thunder aren't just winning; they are winning comfortably without ever looking like they’re in a state of panic. Even when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in foul trouble in earlier games or had a quiet night by his standards, the bench still smoked the Lakers.
The depth advantage is insurmountable. When you have a team that can coast to a double-digit victory in a hostile environment without ever really feeling like they’re overexerting themselves, you have a massive problem if you’re the opponent.
Schematically, Mark Daigneault has put the Lakers in a blender. They are content to let certain scallywags on the Lakers' roster shoot while they stay home on the stars, and they’ve been perfectly fine allowing the Lakers to hang around for 24 minutes before pulling the rug out from under them in the second half.
This OKC team is young, hungry, and has zero interest in letting this series breathe any longer than it has to.
Los Angeles Lakers Betting Preview, Analysis
This series is over; the Lakers are done. They can't compete, they can't match up, and they can't find a single adjustment that actually sticks for more than a six-minute stretch.
We saw this movie against Denver last year, and we’re seeing it again now. The Lakers have been hanging around in the first half of pretty much every game. They're only -5 in total point differential across the three first halves so far—but that’s more about OKC’s pacing than it is about Lakers' dominance.
LeBron James is going to give you everything he has in the first quarter; he’s scored at least four points in every single game this postseason and averaged 5.7 in the first frame. But at this stage of his career, he’s playing with a rotation that just isn't deep enough to sustain that intensity over 48 minutes.
If this game gets out of reach in the third quarter, I expect JJ Redick to pull the starters early to avoid any unnecessary wear and tear on a series that is effectively over.
The Lakers are gassed—mentally taxed from trying to solve the OKC defensive puzzle and physically taxed from trying to keep up with the youngest, fastest team in the league.
When you lose 21 turnovers for 26 points like they did in Game 2, you are essentially giving away games. There is no "LeBron Legacy Game/Series" coming to save them here.
Thunder vs Lakers Picks, Betting Analysis
Thunder -10.5 (-115)
The Thunder are currently favored by 10.5 points on the road in L.A., and honestly, it makes a lot of sense given what we’ve seen.
I’m keeping it simple: I’m laying the points with OKC. I just… This is done. The Lakers can't compete. They can't match up. They can't do anything.
I know the trend for home 'dogs facing a sweep usually favors a first-half cover (26–7 SU, 17–1–1 ATS in the first half), but we saw what happened with the Sixers yesterday—sometimes a team just rolls over and the game is over instantly.
OKC is pretty content to not bury the Lakers in the first 20 minutes, but by the time we hit the fourth quarter, the talent and energy gap will be glaring.
L.A. doesn't have the personnel to match up with OKC’s second unit, and they don't have the shooting to keep pace if the Thunder decide to turn this into a track meet.
I don't care about the narrative of the Lakers "putting up a fight" to avoid the sweep at home. The Thunder are the better team, they are the fresher team, and I think they are going to win Game 4 by double digits to close this series. Take the -10.5 and don't look back.
Rui Hachimura Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115)
Now, let's talk about the only part of the Lakers' offense that OKC is actually inviting. My favorite prop for tonight—and I’ve been playing this all series—is Rui Hachimura Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made.
The Thunder have a specific defensive philosophy when it comes to role players: "It’s fine, you can shoot. We don’t trust you enough to really hurt us." They are daring Rui to beat them from the perimeter, and the crazy thing is, the books aren't moving the line even though he continues to hit them.
Rui is shooting 50% from three this postseason. Let's look at the numbers because they are staggering. Here are his recent totals: 2, 3, 4, 1, 2… and then lately, he’s gone 5, 3, 4, and 5.
He has cleared this 2.5 line in every single game of this series. He’s cleared it in all of his last four games and in six of his last eight overall.
But here’s the kicker that I found on Basketball Reference: in 40 career postseason games, Hachimura’s three-point field goal percentage is 52%. That’s not a typo. He is a career 50%+ shooter in the playoffs. He’s the all-time leader in that category for players with a meaningful sample size. It is insane.
The books are still pricing this at +126 at DraftKings. It’s a ridiculous number. OKC is going to continue to let him fire away to keep LeBron out of the paint.
Matt Moore's Thunder vs Lakers Game 4 Best Bets
- Thunder -10.5 (-115)
- Rui Hachimura Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115)
