Pacers vs Knicks Pick, Prediction Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Knicks on Thursday, Feb. 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Indiana Pacers face the scorching New York Knicks on Thursday in what would be an epic playoff-caliber showdown if not for a lengthy injury report for both teams.

The Pacers could be without T.J. McConnell (illness), Jalen Smith (back), Bennedict Mathurin (toe) and Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) who are all listed questionable. For the Knicks, Quentin Grimes (knee) and OG Anunoby (elbow) are both questionable, while Julius Randle will be out at least a month with a shoulder injury sustained against the Heat.

Monitoring the injury report will be key in breaking down this matchup. Let's get to our Pacers vs. Knicks prediction and pick.

The Pacers lost a hard-fought game against the Celtics on Tuesday, despite having a similar-looking injury report before that game as well. McConnell and Mathurin sat, but Smith and Haliburton—who were on a minute restrictions—both played. It was only the second time Haliburton suited up alongside recent Pacers acquisition, Pascal Siakam.

While Siakam should be a great fit with what the Pacers do on both sides of the ball, it hasn’t been perfect so far. I don’t think that’s anything to be concerned with since Haliburton has been injured and it generally takes some time to integrate new high-usage teammates like that.

Notably, Indiana has played at a slower pace in games without Haliburton by 2.44 possessions per game, per pbpstats.com. In Siakam minutes, the notoriously weak Indiana defense has been a bit stronger. In his seven games since becoming a Pacer, opposing offenses score 1.2 points fewer per 100 possessions with Siakam on the floor.

Meanwhile, Haliburton—who is known as a weak defender and elite addition to the offense—is surprisingly a net-zero defensively. He’s neither a negative nor a positive when looking at on/off splits, per Basketball Reference, despite his reputation as a traffic cone defensively. This leaves us with interesting implications given the injury status in this game.

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And speaking of players who negatively or positively affect the defense and offense, that brings us to the Anunoby part of this handicap. It’s no secret around the NBA that Anunoby has had a massive impact on the Knicks since joining them at the beginning of January.

He has the highest Net Rating (+29.8) of anyone in the league since joining the Knicks, per Cleaning the Glass, thanks to his incredible defensive versatility. His presence has had a resounding effect on Knicks totals. Since acquiring Anunoby, the Knicks are 14-2 to the under.

But Anunoby has missed the past two games with an elbow injury, and yet the Knicks have still won and covered both games without him and both games have gone under the total—a testament to the Knicks depth on both ends of the floor. It should be noted they faced the Hornets and Jazz, two bottom-10 teams in Adjusted Net Rating.

Randle was also absent in those games, but he’s been a disaster defensively and a key factor offensively. Opponents are scoring 8.1 points more per 100 possessions with him on the floor, while the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 6.6.

I like the Knicks to continue their success and cover -3.5 and for the game to go under the current total of 241, however I don’t want to bet both, and I certainly don’t want to bet both without more injury clarification, but I’ll walk you through my approach given some of the possible scenarios.

If Anunoby plays, I like the under down to 238 regardless of Haliburton. With Haliburton out and Anunoby in, I’ll love the total down to 235.

If Anunoby sits but Haliburton plays, I’d look to take the Knicks on the spread. I expect him to continue his minutes restriction, which limited him to just 20 minutes against the Celtics on Tuesday, and in that scenario, the spread will likely drop in favor of the Knicks. Follow me in the Action Network app (AOWatts13) to see how I play this game once injuries are solidified.

Pick: Knicks -3.5 or Under 238

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