The Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks will square off in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites over the Sixers on the spread (Knicks -7.5), with the over/under set at 212.5 total points. New York is a -290 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Philadelphia is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my 76ers vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Game 1 on Monday, May 4.
76ers vs Knicks Prediction
- 76ers vs Knicks pick: Knicks -7.5 (-112, DraftKings)
My 76ers vs. Knicks Game 1 best bet is on New York to cover the spread (-7.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
76ers vs Knicks Odds for Game 1
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
76ers vs Knicks NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview, Analysis
I want to focus on the macro-environment for this Game 1. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the resilience of the 76ers, but the situational spot here is too loud to ignore.
For those of you who have followed my series previews, you know that I actually like the Sixers in this series from a pure matchup standpoint. I think there is value there. However, liking a team to win a series and liking them in Game 1 coming off a grueling road Game 7 are two very different things.
The "Game 7 hangover" is a real phenomenon, but I found something fascinating when I dug into the splits. We often talk about the Nuggets busting that trend last year, but we should have been looking at the East-West split.
Since we have reliable data, Western Conference teams coming off a Game 7 are actually 11-8 ATS (58%). They handle the quick turnaround surprisingly well. But the Eastern Conference? It’s a total disaster. Eastern Conference teams coming off a Game 7 are 6-16 straight up and just 9-13 (41%) ATS.
When you look at the recent history, it’s a parade of non-covers.
Look at 2024: the Pacers went seven games, faced the Celtics, and while they covered, they lost the game. The Cavs went seven, faced the Celtics, and they lost and failed to cover. Go back to 2023: the Heat went seven against the Celtics, then faced the Nuggets in the Finals—lost, didn't cover. The Celtics also went seven against the Sixers that same year, then faced the Heat in the ECF—lost Game 1 and didn't cover.
Then, of course, we have the "Joel Embiid Experience." He’s currently listed as probable for Game 1 with a right hip contusion. There is nothing about the knee on the official report. Now, because it’s the Sixers, "probable" doesn't actually mean he's probably going to play.
You can trust this Sixers team when it comes to the injury report. I’m setting the probability of Embiid being on the floor at about 60/40.
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
I think we are about to see some serious scoring regression across the board. The first round of these playoffs was historically defense-heavy. It was a grind. It was a rock fight—and because of that, the market is starting to over-correct and hang these low totals.
I trust the Knicks' offense. They have been efficient, they are well-rested, and I expect them to put up a huge number against a Philly defense that might be a step slow following that Game 7 emotional peak.
If the Knicks hit their average output and the Sixers even manage a respectable showing, this total flies over 212.5.
Philly can hang in this series, but for Game 1, I think the Knicks take care of business, the ball goes in the basket, and we cash the over.
76ers vs Knicks Pick, Betting Analysis
Knicks -7.5
The physical and emotional toll of an Eastern Conference Game 7 seems to drain these teams in a way that shows up immediately in the next round.
I make this line Knicks -8.6, so getting -7.5 gives us over a point of edge on a trend that historically favors the rested home team.
If Embiid is ruled out or even limited, this number is going to aggressively move in my direction, and I’ll be sitting on a mountain of closing line value.
But even if he’s fully healthy and 100%—which he won't be—I still have the Knicks as 8.6-point favorites.
This isn't a max-bet simply because the Sixers' injury report is a hall of mirrors, but I'm still betting the New York spread at this number very confidently.
The Knicks are rested, they are at home, and they are facing a tired team with a superstar whose health is a giant question mark.
Over 212.5
I don’t guess these numbers; I rely on the math. I performed a regression analysis of the last five years from playoff data, comparing regular-season totals to postseason outcomes.
On average, there is about a nine-point drop in totals once the playoffs start.
That’s the "playoff intensity" tax. Even when I apply that full nine-point reduction to my regular-season model for these two teams, I still project this total at 220.
The total for Game 1 is currently listed at 212.5. That is an eight-point discrepancy from my model. So, I'll take the over in Game 1 tonight.
Matt Moore's 76ers vs Knicks Best Bets
- Knicks -7.5 (-112)
- Over 212.5 (-110)
