The Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks meet in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Our experts Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson break down the matchup, the math behind the glass, and their favorite series-long bets.
Congrats to Philly—an amazing first-round performance and a legendary Game 7 road win. Joe Mazzulla is a moron… sometimes. Not always, just sometimes. But here we are.
Let's get into our Knicks vs. 76ers series preview for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Knicks vs 76ers Series Odds
Series Winner Odds: Knicks -270, 76ers +220
Series Spread: Knicks -1.5 games (-130), 76ers +1.5 games (+105)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 games (-130o /+105u)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
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Knicks vs 76ers NBA Playoff Series Preview, Predictions
Brandon Anderson: Knicks -1.5 Games (-115)
Great teams beat great stars, especially rested far better teams. My series best bet is on the Knicks to win in six games or less.
This core has cashed this in all five of their series wins. They’ve only played one Game 7, which was against Indy, and they lost because everyone was hurt. I’ll sacrifice the home Game 7.
I’m also putting a full unit on Josh Hart series assist leader (+4000) at theScore.
Hart averaged 7.3 assists in just 33 minutes against Philly in the regular season. Now he’s going to play 48 minutes a night. At 40-1, it's a math play.
Matt Moore: 76ers +2.5 Games (-180)
I’m on the Sixers +2.5 games. It’s what I’m referring to after the Raptors series as an "involuntary escalator" where I’m forced to go the other way.
I find edges all the way down on the Sixers. They can win at least two games and make this a series, and then we can nibble the rest of the way on them winning outright.
I think people are underestimating how much the Sixers have gelled with this new version of the roster.
When the Knicks Are on Offense
Brandon: Are you ready for Knicks offensive rebounds? Because they’re coming.
The Knicks are a top-five offensive rebounding team that turns out to be even better at it in the playoffs. The Sixers are a bottom-five defensive rebounding team.
The Knicks are going to SMASH on the glass. In the season series, New York rebounded over a third of their misses against Philly.
New York is going to get extra possessions, get a lot of threes up, and the math says they score just fine.
Matt: One thing I’ll be watching: will Jalen Brunson actually pass the ball to KAT? If Chris Paul was Brunson, he would be screaming at Towns to shoot 100 threes.
Brunson sometimes tries to play hero ball and sneak in for layups. But if the Sixers stick with their defensive drop, Embiid can take away the rim and force the Knicks to rely on that variance.
Kelly Oubre is a much better pick-and-roll defender than people realize, and the Sixers have the length with Edgecombe and Oubre to bother Brunson.
When the 76ers Are on Offense
Brandon: Philly was the #17 offense in the regular season, but I know that’s not who they are with Embiid. However, the Knicks are built to give up threes, and the Sixers just don't like taking or making them—they were 26th in EFG% in the season series while the Knicks were top 10.
Here is a wild stat: the Knicks are 46-3 straight up this season when they have the better field goal percentage.
If Philly can't outshoot them, they’re toast. The Knicks will win the math on rebounds and possession volume.
Matt: I love the Sixers' guards. Maxey can get downhill, Edgecombe can get downhill, and Grimes can hit from deep. Maxey was a superstar in the season series—averaging 30 PPG and 9 three-point attempts.
If the Knicks load up on the drive, these guys can shoot. If you sag, they're past you into the teeth of the defense.
I also think Paul George's jumper looks clean. He shot 33% in the season series, but he looks like a different guy right now. If he has a 'Playoff P' series, Philly is in great shape.
Player Hierarchy & Coaching
Matt: Let’s rank the top four stars. I think Tyrese Maxey is the best player in this series.
Brandon: I agree. Maxey is #1, then Brunson. Small gap. Then Embiid, then KAT.
If Philly has the two best players in the series, that should matter, right? But I ultimately settled on: take the better team.
The Knicks have a clear depth advantage. They have McBride, Hart, and Mitch coming off the bench. Every two days, that grind is going to wear down Embiid and Paul George.
I think there's a less than 50% chance both those guys are healthy to finish this series.
Matt: Tactically, this is a mismatch. Nick Nurse > Mike Brown.
Nurse is willing to go to weird options and think outside the box. Mike Brown is more about "let’s execute the game plan."
Nurse will try stuff until something sticks. But I trust the Knicks' depth. The longer the series goes, the more that goes to New York’s favor.
Knicks vs 76ers Game 1 Odds
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -298 |
Game 1 Smash Spot: Knicks Second Half
Brandon: I have this spot circled for the entire series, but I will also be betting it in Game 1: Knicks Second Half.
The Sixers are coming off a Game 7 with no rest and no depth. Philly is the dead last (#30) third-quarter team in the NBA.
Think about how bad you have to be to be worse than ten tanking teams in the third quarter!
Meanwhile, the Knicks have the #3 home net rating and the #1 fourth-quarter rating.
I’m betting the Knicks Second Half Escalator—win by 6+, win by double digits.
The MSG crowd will roar, the tired Sixers will fade, and New York blows the doors off.
