The Detroit Pistons (2-0) and Cleveland Cavaliers (0-2) will meet in Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Cavaliers are 4.5-point favorites over the Pistons on the spread (Cavaliers -4.5), with the over/under set at 211.5 total points. Cleveland is a -175 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Detroit is priced at +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Pistons vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Game 3 of their second-round playoff series on Saturday, May 9.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Prediction
- Pistons vs Cavaliers pick: Cavaliers First Half Spread -3 (-110)
My Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 3 best bet is on Cleveland to cover the first-half spread (-3). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Odds for Game 3
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 211.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 211.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Pistons vs Cavaliers NBA Playoffs Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview: Becoming a 'James Harden' Team
What makes me nervous is this question: “Can James Harden really play that badly in three straight games?”
Harden is notorious for his postseason disappearing acts, and this series may turn out to be no different, but all the trends support a play on the Cavaliers in Game 3 today, and the first-half spread is the safest bet I can find. Teams down 2-0 are 29-16 ATS first half, covering by 2.6-points per half via KillerSports.com.
It’s not that everything that can go wrong, has gone wrong for the Cavs — but more like, everything the Cavs can do badly, they’ve done badly in this series.
Giving the ball too much to Harden, who can’t handle the Pistons’ physicality and help-defense tendencies? Check. Played offensive lineups when you need physicality to battle the Pistons; inserting guys like Max Strus, and Sam Merrill (before his injury), before Jaylon Tyson? Check. Allowed Cade Cunningham to get Harden on a switch defensively in the fourth quarter of a close game? Check. Failed to get anything of substance from Evan Mobley, a guy who once drew comparisons to Tim Duncan? Check.
Some of this is as simple as “the shots will go down more at home.” But when you trade for Harden, you become a "James Harden" team. You can be other things, like the Clippers were still a "Kawhi Leonard" team, but they were also a Harden team. The Cavaliers are a "Donovan Mitchell" team, but they are also a Harden team — and the Cavs have engaged him as the 2018 version of himself, when he is not the 2022 version or 2024 version, let alone the 2018 MVP version.
So, Kenny Atkinson is going to have to make a lot of changes. But this is the spot where those changes usually come and the home team plays with desperation.
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview: Going for the Jugular
Pistons' fans have understandably felt like the emphasis has been on Cavaliers failures instead of Pistons' success through the first two games of this series, and make no mistake about it, they’ve been great. They haven’t shot the lights out, but they’ve just played great basketball, played with force, and made things happen.
The scariest part is that the Cavs seem very reluctant to match up in the ways they need to. They want to win the same way they won in the regular season the last two years. I keep wanting to ask them where they think they are.
This isn’t a lazy Tuesday night in January. This is Detroit Basketball in May, and the Pistons, after being pushed to the brink by the Magic, are coming for their throat in Game 3 today.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Picks, Betting Analysis
Cavaliers First Half Spread -3
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the first-half spread this afternoon. I expect Cleveland to push this series to at least six games, and this one is an absolute must-win if that's going to be the case.
However, I'm not betting the full-game number because the Cavs simply haven't done enough to earn my trust in the first two games of this series, or these playoffs.
First Quarter Under 54.5 Points
Get this: Eastern Conference first-quarter Unders are 26-9 in the playoffs so far (26%).
The two ways this starts: the Pistons hit them with a big punch in the mouth, getting stops and killing the crowd, or the Pistons struggle to force turnovers and can’t score at all, and their base defense still holds the Cavs under 30. Those are the most likely scenarios.
There’s a chance the Cavs come out and hit a bunch of threes and start and run away with it, but I just have more faith in Detroit’s defense, rebounding, and physicality to not allow that.
Even if the Pistons wind up in foul trouble — very likely — that means they’re going against set defenses.
Head-to-Head Scoring Prop: Donovan Mitchell More Points Than Cade Cunningham
This line is insane. Mitchell has had a much easier time finding opportunities in this series.
Cunningham had 13 points heading into the fourth quarter of Game 2 because the Cavaliers are rightly putting two defenders at the levels and hedging/blitzing him to get the ball out of his hands.
In the event that they give the switch to Harden again, which they should not, they will send doubles. The plan is pretty simple: A-B-C… Anybody But Cade.
The Cavs have played drop coverage against Daniss Jenkins for some reason (14 points in Game 2) and played too far off Tobias Harris — but they will not let Cunningham get going.
The Pistons, meanwhile, are going to keep dropping vs. Mitchell and letting him get downhill. He’ll keep getting to the line (7-of-9 FTA Game 2) and getting to his floater.
Even with Harden sucking up unnecessary possessions, Mitchell will score. There is no universe where Cade should be favored here.
Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 Points & Assists
Speaking of Jenkins, he’s gone over this line in three straight games, and finally seems to be getting over his playoff jitters.
It seems like the Cavaliers didn't read the scouting report on Jenkins and seem content letting him do whatever he wants. He’s averaged 18 PA across the last three games, and has earned as many opportunities.
Matt Moore's Pistons vs Cavaliers Best Bets
- Cavaliers 1H -3 (-110)
- First Quarter Under 54.5 Points (-108)
- H2H Scoring Prop: Donovan Mitchell More Points Than Cade Cunningham (+108)
- Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 Points & Assists (-114)
