The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Mavericks -2.5), with the over/under set at 225 total points. Dallas is a -140 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Antonio is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, October 22.
My Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction
- Spurs vs Mavericks pick: Harrison Barnes Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
My Mavericks vs Spurs best bet is on Harrison Barnes over 12.5 points + rebounds, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Mavericks Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Spurs vs Mavericks NBA Preview
After falling three victories shy of their win total last season (36.5), the San Antonio Spurs face even loftier expectations this season as the bookmakers set a projection of 44.5 victories for the upcoming campaign.
While having a healthy De'Aaron Fox for a full season would certainly help their cause, the former 2023 All-Star will begin the year sidelined with a hamstring injury that occurred during a workout in August.
Fox played just 17 games for the Spurs last year after opting to undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left pinky.
Thus, San Antonio fans will have to wait a bit longer to see how the two-man game will unfold between Fox and the uber-talented Victor Wembanyama.
However, Spurs Nation won't mind getting a close look at first-year player Dylan Harper, who will join Fox in the backcourt. At 6-foot-5, Harper has a similar profile to the type of player we've seen the Spurs target in recent drafts.
Devin Vassell (25) and Stephon Castle (20) are of a similar height, which highlights a preference to surround Wembanyama with speed and athleticism.
Therefore, San Antonio is more likely to deploy a three-guard lineup with the additions of Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynk providing further depth in the frontcourt.
Lastly, Chris Paul's departure as a free agent will be something to monitor closely. Even at 39 years of age, Paul still managed to start all 82 for the Spurs as their floor general.
There was a possibility that the Spurs could have wound up with the first overall pick. After all, San Antonio's odds (6.0%) were three times better than those of Dallas at 1.8%.
The Mavericks had the fourth-worst odds of the 14 teams in the running for the top pick, and yet they still managed to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
Much like Wembanyama, Flagg has the potential to be a generational player, and despite still being only 18, his size is more reminiscent of an NBA player that already has plenty of years under his belt.
The Mavericks retained most of their key players except for Spencer Dinwiddle (32), who averaged 11.0 points and 4.4 assists.
They re-signed free agents Kyrie Irving ($118.4 million for three years) and Dante Exum (one-year deal) and handed contract extensions to forwards Daniel Gafford ($54.3 million for three years) and P.J. Washington ($46.5 million for three years).
D'Angelo Russell also signed on for a two-year deal worth $11.6 million after leaving Brooklyn. Russell should give Dallas some cover until Irving returns from his ACL injury.
While the Mavericks will certainly miss Irving's dynamism, they remain somewhat undervalued, considering the talent on this roster and their projected win total of 39.5.
Flagg could be a massive wild card for Dallas, as he could adjust quickly to the league, making his acquisition feel more like a veteran offseason trade than a rookie trying to acclimate to a new challenge.
Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mavericks appear to be the more settled side heading into this opener, and their frontcourt length is something that really stands out at first glance.
Even with Wembanyama's height at 7-foot-4, the Spurs finished just 19th in rebounds last season with 43.7 per game.
While the Mavericks were slightly worse, averaging 43.0, they should benefit from having a full year of Anthony Davis roaming the court.
It'll be worthwhile to keep a close eye on how the Mavericks perform on the glass to start the season, as that could be a positive indicator of how their campaign will unfold.
Keeping Wembanyama off the glass will be at the top of the Mavericks' scouting report in this matchup.
As a result, Harrison Barnes is someone who could fly under the radar, given his points + rebounds prop is available at 12.5.
With Paul no longer on the Spurs, Barnes is the only other player to start all 82 games last season.
Thus, it wouldn't surprise me if the younger players look to Barnes as that beacon of consistency to set the tone in the season opener.
Barnes does have solid numbers in this price range. He has covered this line in eight of his last 10 games and 15 of his previous 20.
More importantly, he cleared 12.5 points + rebounds in three of his four meetings against the Mavs last season.
In one game, he posted 29 points with eight rebounds and had at least 17 points + rebounds in the two other matchups.
Those numbers would point to a greater likelihood of Barnes clearing this line convincingly, thereby creating a more implicit value on the over.
Pick: Harrison Barnes Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
Mavericks vs Spurs Betting Trends
