The San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks will face off in Game 4 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Knicks are 1.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Knicks -1.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. New York is a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is priced as a +110 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Knicks predictions and NBA Finals Game 4 picks for Wednesday, June 10.
Spurs vs Knicks Prediction for Game 4
- Spurs vs Knicks picks: Knicks -1.5 (-118), Under 216.5 (-108) + 4 Props
My Knicks vs. Spurs Game 4 best bets are on New York to cover the spread (-1.5), the total to stay under 216.5 points, and four prop picks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Knicks Odds for NBA Finals Game 4
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 216.5 -112o / -108u | +110 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 216.5 -112o / -108u | -130 |
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Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals Game 4 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
The Spurs are officially off the mat and back in the series. San Antonio bounced back beautifully on Monday, securing much better performances from Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, a sharper defensive effort, and stronger minutes from their bench.
If they can ride this momentum to another victory, the Spurs will seize control of the series and reclaim home-court advantage, sending New York into full panic mode.
The turnaround in Game 3 came down to several key tactical adjustments by San Antonio:
- Paint Protection: They moved Wembanyama off Karl-Anthony Towns and onto Josh Hart (and other non-threats) to eliminate space in the paint, shifting into effective matchup zones around the rim.
- Unlocking Wembanyama: They actively attacked Towns in the pick-and-roll rather than isolating him against Wembanyama, which successfully got Wemby going offensively.
- Containing Brunson: They collapsed heavily around Jalen Brunson on his isolation drives against switches. By offering less resistance at the point of attack and more help defense at the rim, they dared Brunson to make plays for his teammates—a challenge he was either unwilling or unable to meet.
- Pace Control: The Spurs successfully slowed the game down, registering just 14 transition possessions in Game 3 after running for 31 in Game 1 and 25 in Game 2.
The Spurs’ defense is the premier unit in this series. If they can continue to dictate the tempo, limit transition opportunities, and force sluggish isolation possessions, they put themselves in a great position heading back to San Antonio.
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
The Knicks finally lost! After an incredible 13-game winning streak, New York fell apart on Monday in what was their first home Finals game at Madison Square Garden in 27 years.
After the absolute circus that was Game 3 at MSG, Game 4 should look a lot closer to a normal basketball game.
The big question now is whether Game 3 was just a temporary blip in the midst of the Knicks’ incredible run, or if the Spurs have found a real blueprint for success.
To bounce back, the Knicks have clear counters available to answer San Antonio's adjustments:
- Countering Wemby's Defense: While benching Hart is an option to prevent Wembanyama from ignoring him, the Knicks will likely choose to involve Hart much more in pick-and-rolls. This forces Wembanyama to defend higher up the floor and gets him out of the paint. If Wemby calls for a switch to stay low, the Knicks can counter by passing to whoever Wemby switches off of, who will likely be a better shooter.
- Trusting Towns: The Knicks need to post up Towns more. Even though Towns went just 1-of-4 against De’Aaron Fox in Game 3, New York still scored efficiently through other actions when he was guarded by smaller defenders.
- Defensive Adjustments: On defense, the Knicks can simply blitz more against Castle instead of playing drop-coverage, trusting their weak-side rotations to tag Wembanyama effectively and higher up the floor. This is their base coverage; they moved away from it based on what was shown earlier in the series, but now they can safely return to it.
- Ball Movement: Brunson simply needs to pass more and dribble less. It’s that simple.
The Knicks' offense is the second-best unit in this series. If they can return to their core offensive principles and ball-sharing process, they should feel confident in winning a half-court execution battle, as a slower-paced game ultimately benefits them.
Spurs vs Knicks Picks, Betting Analysis
Knicks -1.5 (-118)
This is a Knicks-spot, I think.
I thought Game 3 was a Spurs-spot, and still bet the Knicks anyway, because they had won 13 in a row and I didn’t want to catch a falling knife.
Now that the knife has been caught, I still like New York to cover the short line here.
This bet is going to hinge on Brunson. There were a dozen possessions from Game 3 where Brunson hunted and got the switch on Julian Champagnie, drove, and found himself deterred by Wembanyama at the rim and Castle recovery-defending on the perimeter.
Instead of finding the easy pass, he kept dribbling and pivoting, trying to force a tough shot. That approach simply won’t work.
The Spurs are daring Brunson to be a traditional point guard instead of a scoring superstar. In two of the three games in this series so far, he has obliged them, and it has cost New York—though their defense bailed them out in Game 1, and Brunson made just enough plays in the fourth quarter to save the day in Game 2.
If the Knicks trust their offense and Brunson navigates the help defense better, New York should bounce back on the offensive side of the ball in Game 4.
Combined with what should be a much more normal, focused environment following Monday’s high-stakes excitement, this should be a great opportunity to lay the 1.5 points with the Knicks.
Under 216.5 (-108)
Game 3 went over the total by 11 points, representing a massive reversion to the mean after two absolute rock fights in Games 1 and 2.
Moving into Game 4, the handicap comes down to which adjustments you trust more: the Knicks' defensive tweaks or their offensive fixes.
While the Spurs will certainly make adjustments of their own, those are likely to be limited to the offensive side of the ball.
San Antonio's Game 3 offensive explosion was likely close to their ceiling, meaning further offensive adjustments may not yield significantly higher production.
Better overall defense typically creates more turnovers and transition opportunities, but the half-court grinding should remain.
I am highly confident in the Knicks' ability to execute defensive adjustments here. Observed trends show the Knicks are slowly chipping away at allowing corner three attempts after giving up 15 of them in Game 1.
While Wembanyama may continue to hit perimeter threes, I don’t expect him to get nearly as many easy lob attempts at the rim.
Additionally, Castle is primed for some regression after outperforming expectations last game, and the overall defensive tightening from both sides points toward the under.
Stephon Castle Under 22.5 Points & Assists (-105)
If I’m right and the natural defensive adjustment for the Knicks is to put two defenders at-level against Castle in pick-and-rolls, that completely takes away his driving lanes, and it will increase his turnover rate while making it much harder for him to find assists.
Even if he successfully hits the short roller (presumably Wembanyama), that’s the easiest player for the weak-side defense to tag. All other perimeter passes are the hard ones to defend.
Castle had comfortably gone under this total in the first two games of the series, making him a prime regression candidate here.
Landry Shamet Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-122)
Landry Shamet is averaging 1.6 made threes in the playoffs and is playing more minutes right now than at any prior point in the season.
He went a cold 1-of-7 from deep in Game 3, but this is not rocket science—the volume is there, and shots will regress to the mean.
The Spurs' defensive scheme dictates that they will live with Shamet beating them from the outside, giving him plenty of clean looks.
Miles McBride Under 4.5 Points (-120)
Deuce McBride only played nine minutes in Game 3, which was exactly half of his Game 2 total.
His minutes on the floor have largely been bad during this stretch, and this matchup is proving to be a highly unfavorable one for him.
Expect his playing time and scoring opportunities to remain limited.
Knicks to Win Second Quarter Race to 10 Points (-125)
The second-quarter minutes have been dynamite for New York all series.
In these specific rotations, they play Towns alongside four guards, and the Spurs have had a total nightmare trying to match up and guard it.
Look for the Knicks to burst out of the gate hot in the second frame.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Knicks Best Bets for Game 4
- Knicks -1.5 (-118)
- Under 216.5 (-108)
- Stephon Castle Under 22.5 Points & Assists (-105)
- Landry Shamet Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-122)
- Miles McBride Under 4.5 Points (-120)
- Knicks to Win Second Quarter Race to 10 Points (-125)
