The San Antonio Spurs (2-2) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2) will square off in a pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -198 moneyline favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is listed as a +164 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 of their playoff series on Tuesday, May 26.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction
- Spurs vs Thunder picks: Thunder -5.5 (-105), Under 216.5 (-110) + 5 Player Props
My Thunder vs. Spurs Game 5 best bets are on Oklahoma City to cover the spread (-5.5), the total to stay under 216.5 points, and five player props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Thunder Odds for Game 5
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
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Spurs vs Thunder NBA Western Conference Finals Game 5 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
All of a sudden, all the momentum is with the Spurs. They limited Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4, while Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are banged up. Chet Holmgren hasn’t scored over 15 points in what feels like a month. The Spurs actually guarded Alex Caruso last time out. It’s all going San Antonio’s way.
But is that enough? Is that real? Has something shifted, or was Game 4 just the right spot for the Spurs to take advantage of shot variance and effort discrepancy in a must-win game between two pretty evenly matched teams, and now it’s OKC’s turn?
The Spurs made some key adjustments in Game 4. They stopped blitzing at the level, which previously left shooters open, but they didn’t just play straight up either. They brought help from the wings and squeezed from the corners.
So, they brought help, just not as blatantly as before, and it worked. San Antonio has also been very good in transition defense off turnovers, and has figured out enough to make things hard for the Thunder.
The thing is, now that those defensive looks are on tape, there are bound to be counters. The Spurs played a high-drop coverage with Victor Wembanyama contesting. That opens up the backside to rotations and cuts underneath without the presence of the Wemby to protect the rim.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
J-Dub is questionable for the Thunder in Game 5 and is now listed with a hamstring strain instead of general soreness. Mitchell is also listed as questionable, but is likely out.
Even with the injuries, OKC is a stellar 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over the last three postseasons following a loss.
In Game 5, expect the Thunder to slow it down and make different adjustments to work the ball and get better looks, including some for Caruso.
So, without further ado, let's take a look at my seven picks for tonight.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks, Betting Analysis
Thunder -5.5 (-105)
When you throw in the usual shot variance for the home team and against the road team, along with the historical trends that back the home team, this is an OKC-spot.
In part, the Thunder's last loss was due to how quickly they took shots. They took 23 shots between 22 and 15 seconds on the shot clock, compared to just 17 shots inside eight seconds. They were making one pass and shooting, essentially being dared into bad possessions.
I expect an offensive correction back on their home floor in Game 5, making Thunder -5.5 the side to back. I’ll also sprinkle an alternate line at -9.5 given that teams that win Game 5 of the conference finals in a 2-2 series have won by an average margin of 13 points in the past.
Under 216.5 (-110)
The Thunder have gone over their team total in three of four games in this series; even in their Game 1 loss, they managed to score. But San Antonio's defense has figured out enough to make things hard for the Thunder.
I think OKC can win behind a better offensive performance while still keeping this game under the 216.5 total. Meanwhile, every time the Thunder lose, they turn around and force a ton of turnovers. They buckle down and get back to business defensively.
Because I’m doubtful the Spurs shooters will have a good night in a tough Game 5 road environment, I like the under, though I don’t completely love either side of the total.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)
Looking at the high-drop coverage the Spurs brought on SGA last game, a very simple counter would be to punish it by taking more pull-up threes.
Shai does not traditionally like these shots; they’re simply not in his sweet spots. But against the Nuggets last year when they employed a similar strategy, he took more of them.
I think he takes more threes tonight, similar to Game 1 when he took seven, and knocks down at least two. It’s a basic adjustment that directly counters the coverage.
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+108)
Wallace has gone over this total in all but one game in the series and is routinely left open by the defense.
The Spurs still have to send help inside, which leads to kickouts to Wallace, who can also drive and create off those closeouts.
De'Aaron Fox Over 8.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120)
Fox has consistently gone over this line in the playoffs and throughout this series.
He’s a much better, more calculated creator than Stephon Castle, who is just always trying to yam it on the opponents’ head. Fox is a seasoned veteran who now knows exactly how to make the right reads.
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-165)
Dort is slowly being played out of this series. He’s gone under this number in all four games, and while he’s a much better shooter at home, it’s more likely he plays fewer minutes moving forward.
This is the safest way to fade his overall rotation availability.
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
I know, this is a lot of Thunder three-point props, but these are the most obvious shots for OKC to generate through their adjustments.
Caruso went over this line in three straight games to open this series before hitting zero in Game 4, and with a +110 line on this prop, we’re getting a great market overreaction to a one-game blip. He has been sensational in every game in this series except Game 4, when he finished at a -22 and zero points.
This is a great example of people taking a box score result and assuming a major adjustment, claiming "the Spurs guarded Caruso closer," or something like that.
But I went back and watched the film. And yes, there were select possessions where the Spurs recovered aggressively to him on drives. But for the most part? He was still wide open, especially on spot-up shots. The ball simply wasn’t finding him. Expect that to change in Game 5.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Thunder Best Bets for Game 5
- Thunder -5.5 (-105)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+108)
- De'Aaron Fox Over 8.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120)
- Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-165)
- Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
