The San Antonio Spurs (3-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3) will square off in a winner-take-all Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -3.5), with the over/under set at 212.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -155 moneyline favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is listed as a +130 underdog to pull off the upset. But who comes out on top?
Will OKC do what it’s done in the past and find a way to win Game 7? Or will the Spurs finish the series the way they started it, by stunning the Thunder on their home floor? It’s a do-or-die matchup with a trip to the Finals on the line. Let's get to my Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for WCF Game 7 on Saturday, May 30.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction
- Spurs vs Thunder pick: Thunder -3.5 (-110) + 4 Player Props
My Thunder vs. Spurs Game 7 best bets are on Oklahoma City to cover the spread and four player props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Thunder Odds for Game 7
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
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Spurs vs Thunder NBA Western Conference Finals Game 7 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
What is it about Game 7s that makes them so special? We’ve seen 27 Game 7s in conference finals history. That history is marked with legendary performances from some of the greatest players of all time, like Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Charles Barkley, and many more.
There’s something about the intensity—every possession feels like a death, there is no tomorrow for whoever loses, and this Game 7 between the Spurs and Thunder feels like a whole other level.
For the Spurs, this is Victor Wembanyama grabbing the mantle of the world’s best player in unprecedented time, setting off what could be an unparalleled run of success. Nobody is ever this good at this point of their career, especially when they have to face a team like the Thunder, and yet Wembanyama is just 48 minutes from doing that.
Look, the Spurs can win this game. They stole Game 1, which bought them time to adjust. They were never going to win Game 2, and they were never going to win Game 5; the spots in those games are too tough on the road.
However, Game 3 was the turning point of the series. If the Spurs had won Game 3, there’s a legitimate chance that they could have gone up 3-1 and closed out this series in Game 6 at home. But OKC took Game 3 in San Antonio, which reset home court for the Thunder.
The Spurs get back to their process after a loss. They refine their spacing and rotations. They move the ball better and they force more turnovers.
Game 6 was an emotional, cathartic moment for San Antonio. After receiving so much criticism, Wembanyama rose to the moment and in what could be his last home game of the season; the Spurs fought and clawed for every possession.
Then there’s the fatigue and letdown factor. The Spurs are running a shorter rotation with players who are unaccustomed to playing this many minutes, especially Wembanyama, and are at the end of a grueling series where they’ve played one of the the biggest games of their lives every other day for the last two weeks.
The Spurs have earned everyone’s respect, and truthfully, I won’t be surprised if this is a nail-biter down the stretch.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
The Thunder are trying to become the first team make it to back-to-back Finals in the last eight years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is trying to win MVP, Conference MVP, and Finals MVP in back-to-back years. Doing so would cement this OKC squad as one of the all-time great teams. All they need to do is win five more games.
The Thunder have still been able to win when they execute. They get away from that process on the road often, but it almost never happens at home, and it certainly doesn’t happen after a loss.
The Thunder played a pretty sloppy game in Game 6, and they were never really in it. This all sets up OKC very well to deliver the final punch.
Over the last two years, OKC is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS after a loss. They have held the opponent under their team total in seven of those 10 games, but the Spurs have gone over their team total in both games after beating OKC in this series.
This is the best team in the league in a home Game 7, a spot where that they've emerged victorious the past two times (Nuggets and Pacers).
The Thunder have more experience, a deeper rotation, and they are in a prime bounce-back spot. I’ll trust the champs in Game 7 tonight.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks, Betting Analysis
Thunder -3.5 (-110)
First, we need to talk about the trends, because they’re baffling:
- Home favorites in Game 7s overall since 2003 are 49-24 SU, 39-34 ATS. That’s good!
- Home favorites of less than 4.5 points (like OKC) are just 6-13 SU (!) and 5-14 ATS. That’s very bad.
- In the conference finals, home teams are 3-3 SU and ATS, and 0-2 as less than a 4-point favorite.
- 1-seeds are 13-7 SU, 11-9 ATS in any conference playoff Game 7 (excluding the Finals).
- 1-seeds are 2-1 SU and ATS in conference finals Game 7s.
- Teams that won and covered Game 6 to force Game 7 and are road 'dogs are 14-28 SU (33%) but 22-20 ATS.
So, the numbers suggest the home favorites win unless they’re short home favorites, which OKC is, but 1-seeds do better, and the Thunder are the 1-seed.
Great, that clears up absolutely nothing. I like the Thunder here.
As a side note, I also lean toward the under at 212.5. I can’t officially bet this total because I have bet the total under in the past two games and it’s been a disaster. But Game 7s are historically great under spots.
Overall, the under is 45-32 (58.4%) since 2003 and 7-1 in the conference finals. This total is six points lower than the previous game’s total; in that specific situation for Game 7s, the under is 11-6.
It’s two great defensive teams battling it out. I just can’t pull the trigger because the offenses are what the teams have managed to find success with.
Despite OKC and San Antonio both being better defensively than offensively, the over keeps hitting by wide margins.
OKC tends to create more turnovers after a loss, but the Spurs have been great at limiting transition opportunities off those turnovers in this series. But if you want to bet the total, I see this as an under-or-nothing spot. That’s just how Game 7s go.
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)
Cason Wallace has gone over this line in four of six games in this series, and he has managed to make at least one three-pointer in every single game so far.
Wallace is likely to play more tonight, as a defender that the coaching staff fully trusts who can also handle the ball and shoot.
He has also captured a steady volume of opportunities, getting at least six attempts from beyond the arc in five of the six games in this series.
Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5 Assists (-150)
Wembanyama is less of a puzzle and more of a cheat code where no one really understands what is happening, let alone how to beat it.
It’s like trying to win a fistfight with thunder or trying to win a debate with a tidal wave. You don’t play against Wemby; he just happens.
However, Wembanyama has gone under this assist line in four of six games in this series.
Without a second big man on the floor, there’s no high-low passing available for San Antonio, meaning it is all kickouts in a rugged Game 7 environment where shooting typically suffers.
To make matters tougher, the Thunder defense has closed on his passing angles more and more as the series has gone on.
Julian Champagnie Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-175)
Julian Champagnie has gone over this line just twice in this series despite seeing high-volume attempts.
The Thunder have heavily prioritized covering and defending his looks from deep to take him away.
Additionally, his floor minutes have started to dip recently, and the coaching staff may decide to go to Keldon Johnson more.
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals (-175)
Wallace has gone over this line in every single game in this series.
The Thunder tend to create more steals after a loss, and Wallace is likely to play more minutes tonight than Lu Dort in this spot.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Thunder Best Bets for Game 7
- Thunder -3.5 (-110)
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)
- Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5 Assists (-150)
- Julian Champagnie Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-175)
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals (-175)
