The New York Knicks (18-7) and San Antonio Spurs (18-7) will meet in the NBA Cup Finals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Tuesday night. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Let's get into my Spurs vs Knicks picks and my NBA Cup Finals predictions for Tuesday, December 16, including best bets for the spread, total, and a player prop.
Spurs vs Knicks Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs Knicks Odds for NBA Cup Finals
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 234 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 234 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Spurs vs Knicks NBA Cup Finals Betting Predictions
Spurs vs Knicks Spread Prediction
This line is a little bit bonkers. Let’s use some comparisons for it.
The differential between the Knicks and Spurs based on:
- Net rating (net points per 100 possessions): Knicks +4.4
- Non-garbage time net rating per CleaningTheGlass.com: Knicks +6.2
- Schedule-adjusted net rating via DunksAndThrees.com: Knicks +3.2
- Dunks And Threes Projected Differentials: Knicks +3
- Market power rating differential per Inpredictable: Knicks +5.1
- My preseason-priors-weighted power ratings: Knicks +2.8
- My in-season power ratings: Knicks +2.8
Yet, this line sits at Knicks -2.5.
You can point to the return of Victor Wembanyama, but we don’t know what his minutes limit will be or any restrictions that may be on him.
When Wembanyama has played, the Spurs have won a lot of games, but the overall performance of the team with him is good, not elite.
Wemby still has so much to grow into when it comes to his game.
The Knicks have the better offense and defense, schedule-adjusted. Even with Wembanyama back, that only really pulls the Spurs even.
The Spurs are understandably getting a bump here based on beating the baddest team in the land, Oklahoma City, but there’s just no proof that it will carry over to this matchup.
Then there’s the homecourt thing. Who do you think has more fans living in Vegas, the New York Knicks or the San Antonio Spurs? This is going to be much more of a home game for the Knicks than the Spurs, even if the overall tone is muted.
From a tactical standpoint, San Antonio’s big edge is being able to get downhill with their guards against soft coverage by the Knicks.
The Knicks are a great pick-and-roll defensive team because they contain everything. The Spurs will generate threes; that’s the gap for the Knicks, and the Spurs are decent when it comes to volume (15th) and percentage (11th).
The Spurs will score in this game. But while San Antonio’s defense skyrockets to elite with Wemby on the floor, predictably, the Knicks will counter with Mitchell Robinson and offensive rebounds.
I don’t think the Spurs have the weapons to keep up with the Knicks. They slayed the dragon, but the Knights of San Antonio will fall to the drudge of the Knicks’ middle-management-office-work-like approach.
Pick: Knicks -2.5
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Spurs vs Knicks Over/Under Pick
I love the over here. I project the total at 237.
The warning is that the under is 7-1 in games in Vegas. Guess what the one was? The last Knicks-Magic game. A good reminder that small sample sizes are tricky for a reason.
This is an offensive game.
The biggest advantage for the Spurs is getting downhill with their guards and hitting threes against New York.
New York’s biggest advantage is its pick-and-roll offense and ability to generate quality looks.
Neither team has the ability to really contain the bread and butter of the opponent.
This number opened at 227.5 and has been steamed up seven points. I still don’t think you’re at the bad point of chasing steam.
I like this up to 236.5.
Pick: Over 234
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Spurs vs Knicks Player Prop Bet
Nothing like taking an over with an under prop.
The Knicks are the best team in the league at defending shots in the paint, outside of the restricted area.
They play drop defense and shell in isolation to prevent teams from getting to the rim.
You can pull up for floaters and short jumpers all you want, but they allow opponents to shoot just 45 percent on shots from that area.
Castle is second on the Spurs in shots from that area and only shoots 47.9 percent anyway, compared to team leader in shots from there, De’Aaron Fox, who shoots 58 percent.
So, I’ll take Fox to have more opportunities, Castle to have fewer in this game.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points
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Spurs vs Knicks Best Bets
- Knicks -2.5
- Over 234
- Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points
