The Phoenix Suns (32-23) and San Antonio Spurs (38-16) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. The game will broadcast live on AZFamily.
The Spurs are 7.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread (Spurs -7.5), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. San Antonio is a -290 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, February 19.
Suns vs Spurs Prediction
- Suns vs Spurs pick: Stephon Castle Over 21.5 Points & Assists (-125)
My Suns vs Spurs best bet is on Stephon Castle over 21.5 points & assists. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Suns vs Spurs Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 229.5 -112o / -108u | +235 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 229.5 -112o / -108u | -290 |
Suns vs Spurs NBA Preview
For the second consecutive year, the Suns and Spurs will play in the first game out of the All-Star break.
The situation is already better for the Spurs because it was around that time that it was announced that Victor Wembanyama had a blood clot that cost him the rest of the season.
It also derailed the Spurs' chances of securing a spot in the Play-In Tournament last season after the acquisition of De'Aaron Fox.
The Spurs did win that game, 120-109, without Wembanyama, but now that he has a clean bill of health, the time missed last season might have turned into a blessing in disguise.
With Wembanyama and Fox out for the season, Stephon Castle took on higher usage to close out his rookie season and ultimately won Rookie of the Year.
Now, Castle is averaging 16.5 points, five rebounds, seven assists and 1.3 steals per game. He has become the primary facilitator for a Spurs team that features a loaded backcourt with Fox and No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper in the backcourt.
Castle and Harper both participated in the Rising Stars Game over All-Star Weekend, with Harper making the game-winning basket against his older brother.
The Suns have taken in each of the last three meetings in this series, including the first two this season. All three of those victories have been by nine points or more, but all were in Phoenix.
The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this series — and the oddsmakers expect that trend to continue as the Spurs are nearly double-digit favorites at home.
If the standings (and the Play-In Tournament) hold, these teams would face off in the first round of the Western Conferenceplayoffs.
That matchup would feature two of the best defenses in the league, with the Spurs ranking third in defensive rating and the Suns ranking 10th.
The Spurs' defense is nearly seven points better with Wembanyama on the floor.
However, that has not deterred Devin Booker. He has averaged 26.9 points over the last eight meetings. They will be without Dillon Brooks, who is suspended after picking up his 16th technical foul.
Suns vs Spurs Predictions, Betting Analysis
Stephon Castle Over 21.5 Points & Assists
Prior to the All-Star break, Castle left the game early against the Lakers.
He returned on the second night of the back-to-back against the Warriors, but combined played just 33 minutes in those games.
Still, over the last 10 games, he is averaging 14.8 points and 6.9 assists per game.
He has enjoyed playing Phoenix as he has 16 points in three of four career games against the Suns.
That includes 26 points in his last game against them as well as a double-double with 16 points and 10 assists.
Castle has had at least five assists in 16 of his past 20 games.
If he continues his scoring pace against the Suns, he should clear 22 PA tonight. He has done so in 31 of 45 (69%) games this season.
Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points & Rebounds
A few of his passes may go to Wembanyama, who has scored 22 points in seven of his last 10 games.
He has pulled down 11 rebounds in seven of his last 10 games, matching his average for the season.
As a result, Wembanyama has recorded 30+ PR in eight of his last 10 games.
Devin Booker 30+ Points & Assists
Meanwhile, Booker has scored 24 points in six of his last eight games against the Spurs and had five assists in seven of them.
He has recorded 30 PAs in six of his last eight games against the Spurs and six of his last nine overall.
Suns vs Spurs Best Bet
- Stephon Castle Over 21.5 Points & Assists (-125, DraftKings)
Suns vs Spurs Parlay Picks
- Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points & Rebounds
- Devin Booker 30+ Points & Assists
- Stephon Castle Over 22.5 Points & Assists
Parlay Odds: +288 via DraftKings
Spread
I'm not crazy about the spread, so I'll avoid it.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline here.
Over/Under
My Spurs vs Suns betting prediction is on Stephon Castle over 21.5 points + assists.
Spurs vs Suns Betting Trends
