Timberwolves vs Bucks Picks, Prediction Today | Thursday, Feb. 8

Here's everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Bucks on Thursday, Feb. 8 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Thursday night. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses to the Bulls and Suns, respectively, and will look to bounce back with a win. There are a few injury factors to consider on the Milwaukee side before diving into a breakdown.

The Bucks have already ruled out Khris Middleton with an ankle injury he suffered in Tuesday’s loss to the Suns, while Cam Payne (knee), Jae Crowder (ankle), Brook Lopez (personal) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) are all probable. The big question is whether Damian Lillard (ankle) will play or if he’ll miss his second straight game.

Let's get to our Timberwolves vs. Bucks prediction and pick.

The Timberwolves hit the ground running this season. They had been the sole occupant of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference until recently, when the Nuggets, Clippers and Thunder all caught up to create a four-way tie for first place.

This Timberwolves team has built its success primarily on the defensive end of the floor, while offense has been tough to find for Minnesota, which averages just 113.1 points per game — 22nd in the league.

The Bucks haven’t been a good defensive team this season, but they’ve improved lately under Doc Rivers and their defensive shot profile isn’t exactly ideal against a Minnesota team that likes to attack the rim and kick out for corner 3s. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, the Bucks rank 10th in Opponent Rim Rate and prevent the third-fewest corner 3s of any team in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. From a shot profile perspective, scoring could be hard to come by for the Timberwolves.

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The tough thing to measure here is whether or not Milwaukee will be up to the task of playing defense after a five-game road trip. This could be described as a letdown spot for the Bucks, who have been on the road for almost two weeks.

Similar to the Timberwolves' situation on offense, the Bucks' offensive shot profile doesn’t match up well with Minnesota’s defense. The Bucks' offense is heavily reliant on 3-point shooting, which can certainly lead to variance in Milwaukee’s favor in some situations. But with a team like Minnesota — which ranks seventh in defensive 3-point rate — that variance becomes a lot less likely.

If we do see 3-pointers, I think they’ll come from Lopez, who will look to pull Rudy Gobert away from the rim on defense by presenting himself as a floor-spacer.

This is a good spot for the Timberwolves and an Under, which are correlated outcomes. If scoring is at a minimum, that’s likely because Minnesota is locking down Milwaukee's offense, which is the side of the ball where the Bucks have the edge. We’ve seen the wall approach work against Antetokounmpo in the past, and with the Middleton out and the possibility of Lillard missing the game as well, I think that only bodes well for Minnesota and its defense-first approach.

Even still, I think the Under is a bit more reliable than the Timberwolves. I’ll take the Under 228.5 as my main play and monitor the injury report for Milwaukee from there. If Lopez plays, I’ll bet on new-Dad strength to propel him over his points or 3-point prop, depending on the best number. Follow in the Action App to see which one I play (AOWatts13).

Since the side is a little closer call, for some fun, I’ll sprinkle on two parlays with correlated outcomes: Timberwolves moneyline + Under 228.5 + Gobert over rebounds, and Bucks moneyline + Over 228.5 + Antetokounmpo alt-over points if Lillard is out.

Pick: Under 228.5 | Brook Lopez Props

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