College Baseball Odds, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Projections for This Weekend’s Games (March 15-17)
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Duke’s Jonathan Santucci.
After taking a stranglehold as the best team in the country in the polls over the past year, Wake Forest was dethroned after its first weekend of conference play.
Duke started the fun with six earned runs on March 8 against one of the elite pitchers in the game in Josh Hartle. The Sunday rubber match saw the Demon Deacons lose the series thanks to defense, committing three errors that resulted in seven unearned runs.
The Blue Devils entered the Action Network top 10 to kick off March and are set to host another Omaha hopeful in the Clemson Tigers this weekend.
From a national fallout perspective, there may be no better time to buy Arkansas, the new top team in the polls.
The Razorbacks are dominating on the mound, ranking top-three nationally in strikeout-to-walk ratio and ERA. Head coach Dave Van Horn avoids two of the best SEC teams on the schedule in Tennessee and Vanderbilt, while Florida and LSU will both come to Baum-Walker Stadium.
Here are a few notes from the fourth week of play:
- Aiden May is still absent from the Oregon State rotation after suffering an injury against Arkansas in Week 2. Despite losing the staff anchor, the Beavers have lost only one game and moved to third in the nation.
- Thatcher Hurd has officially taken the Sunday role for LSU. Despite throwing five innings without an earned run, the Tigers lost to Xavier in Hurd's latest start.
- Saturdays are unkind to the Florida Gators, who took consecutive losses to Saint Mary's and Miami. Freshman starting pitcher Liam Peterson may be in jeopardy of losing his weekend rotation spot.
- Trey Yesavage has become an auto-play on Friday nights for East Carolina. The junior right-hander has allowed three earned runs in 24 innings, punching out 39 batters in the process
- Dallas Baptist continues to climb the ranks despite a bullpen meltdown over the weekend. Nick Wilson was tagged for six earned runs in the ninth inning in a Saturday loss to San Diego.
- Duke out-pitching Wake Forest was expected this past weekend, but the sticks are where the Blue Devils are separating themselves from the rest of ACC. The lineup failed to produce a top-25 rank in any offensive category last season but now sit second in home runs per game, fourth in slugging and top-25 in on-base percentage.
Conference play begins in every Division I league this weekend, with Texas A&M at Florida and Alabama at Tennessee taking center stage in the SEC.
Wake Forest will look to rebound at Virginia, while North Carolina's freshmen pitchers hit the road to Coral Gables against a rising Miami roster.
In our weekly projections, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated base runs and park factors.
You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.
Here are the projections for the top-25 teams with experienced starting pitchers for Week 5:
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