2024 NCAA Tournament Odds: Final Four & Sweet 16 Projections for All 68 Teams

2024 NCAA Tournament Odds: Final Four & Sweet 16 Projections for All 68 Teams article feature image
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Sarah Stier via Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Hurley.

I’ve made my initial picks for the 2024 NCAA Tournament and while a few could change, I have the Houston Cougars coming out on top.

My projections are a big part of my process. I’ve calculated how likely it is for every team to advance to every round of March Madness.

Check out Koerner's custom bracket builder to help you thrive in March Madness.

East Region

UConn has a 40% chance of making it to Phoenix for the Final Four, although my bracket indicates that might not be the pick to make. UConn got a bit of a rough draw by getting Iowa State as the No. 2 seed since many thought the Cyclones would be a No. 1 seed. The Huskies' path also features the top No. 3 (Illinois) and 4 (Auburn) seeds.

West Region

This region is the only one where the No. 1 seed (North Carolina) isn’t the team I project with the best chance of making it to the Final Four. It was a bit of a surprise to see UNC land a No. 1 seed. I have Arizona (No. 2 seed) rated as the better team and the favorites to win this region.

South Region

Houston is the clear favorite to make the Final Four, with almost a 50% chance.

Houston had a great draw with the lowest-rated No. 2 seed in Marquette, although I'm boosting the Golden Eagles a few points with the likely return of star point guard Tyler Kolek return, and the lowest-rated No. 3 seed in Kentucky, which should make their path a bit easier. Given that draw and UConn’s tougher draw, I have the Cougars being slight favorites to win it all.

Midwest Region

Purdue has the best chance of making it out of the Midwest Region, but only by 2% over Tennessee. Purdue had a bit of a tougher draw with the top No. 2 seed (Tennessee) and top No. 5 seed (Gonzaga) landing in its region. Both Purdue and Tennessee have a 50%+ chance of making it to the Elite Eight, making it the most likely Elite Eight matchup in the entire bracket.

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Live Futures Odds During NCAA Tournament

Below is a spreadsheet with live odds for each team's chances to make each round of March Madness. I'll be updating this throughout the tournament, along with each team's power ratings after each game.

Click here to download my in-play odds sheet for this year’s March Madness. To update live during the tournament, simply mark a team as a 100% chance of advancing to the round it’s projected to make. For example, if UConn beats Stetson, put 100% into column E for the Huskies and 0% for Stetson. The odds will automatically update. I'd suggest following along with the live sheet since I'll be updating team's ratings there.

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Nick Sterling
May 17, 2024 UTC