Monday Sharp Report: Pros Focused on Three CBB Dogs and Two Unders
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Experiencing a case of the Mondays? Upset that Lumbergh made you work the weekend? Sick of being yelled at for not wearing enough flair?
Cheer up, we have an 11-game college hoops slate to get down on tonight.
After dissecting all the lines and percentages, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on tonight.
For a full glossary betting of terms, plus the sides getting the highest percentage of tickets and money, check out the bottom of the article.
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET
Norfolk State-Howard Under 148
7 p.m. ET
Square bettors are largely overlooking this small conference game, but not the sharps. They see a valuable under-the-radar total play. More than 70% of bets are taking the over, but it only accounts for 65% of dollars (which means it’s mostly square money). Meanwhile, the total has fallen from 149 to 148. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to get over backers a better number? Because sharps got down hard on Under 149 at Pinnacle and JustBet, causing a pair of steam and reverse line moves that forced the market to drop the total.
Duke at Virginia Tech (+5.5), Under 154.5
7 p.m. ET
Death, taxes and public bettors hammering highly ranked favorites against unranked teams. Fifth-ranked Duke is getting a whopping 76% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night, creating great contrarian value to go the other way. Despite only getting 24% of bets, Virginia Tech briefly dipped from +5.5 to +5 and has remained at +5.5 ever since (typically, if a team is getting 70% or more the line would move to -6, -6.5 or higher). This “line freeze” indicates liability on Va Tech, with oddsmakers reluctant to hand out a +6 to sharp contrarian bettors. As Wes Reynolds noted earlier today, Duke also fits a “Fat and Happy” situation spot.
Sharps are also hammering the under in this ACC showdown. We triggered two steam moves on Under 158.5 (5Dimes, +57.6 units) and Under 157 (BetUS, +15.7 units). These are two of your top College Basketball total bet signals this year. If you had bet $100 on every bet signal from both books this season you would be up more than $7,300 right now.
SC Upstate (+18) at Florida Gulf Coast
7:00 p.m. ET
Not gonna lie, I’ve never heard of SC Upstate until today. But I’ll be taking the Spartans plus the points because they’re one of the sharpest plays of the night. Recreational bettors remember FGCU making an epic Cinderella run in the 2013 tournament and have no problem laying the massive spread against an unknown school with a 7-24 record. But the wiseguys aren’t scared off. More than 70% of bets are on FCGU, yet the line has fallen from -19 to -18. Why? Because sharps at SBG got down hard on the big dog, causing market-wide reverse line movement. It got all the way down to +16.5 before FGCU buyback leveled it off at +18.
Fresno State at Air Force (+6.5)
9 p.m. ET
Fresno is 20-9 and Air Force is 11-16. So of course square bettors have no problem laying the points with the road favorite. However, wiseguys like the undervalued home dog. Air Force is your top “bet vs. dollar” discrepancy play tonight. The Falcons are only getting 35% of bets, but they account for more than half the money, a great indication that the big sharp wagers are grabbing the points, not laying them. Meanwhile, despite receiving fewer than than 40% of bets, Air Force has moved from +8.5 to +6.5, evidence of sharp reverse line movement taking the home dog.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
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Pictured: Duke guard Trevon Duval (1) and Virginia Tech Hokies guards Justin Bibbs (10) and Ahmed Hill (13). Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports