The Buffalo Bulls take on the UMBC Retrievers in Baltimore, MD. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Buffalo is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Buffalo vs. UMBC prediction and college basketball picks for December 9, 2025.
Buffalo vs UMBC Prediction
My Pick: UMBC ML +110 (Play to -115)
My Buffalo vs UMBC best bet is on the Retrievers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Buffalo vs. UMBC Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 147.5 -108 / -112 | -130 |
| UMBC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 147.5 -108 / -112 | +110 |
- Buffalo vs UMBC spread: Buffalo -1.5
- Buffalo vs UMBC over/under: 147.5 points
- Buffalo vs UMBC moneyline: Buffalo -130, UMBC +110
Buffalo vs UMBC College Basketball Betting Preview
Buffalo Basketball
Buffalo comes into this matchup with an impressive 8-1 record thanks to strong 3-point shooting and defense.
However, it’s tough to ignore the Bulls' strength of schedule, which ranks near the bottom of college basketball. Out of the 360+ teams in the sport, the Bulls rank 350th.
Of their eight wins, seven have come against teams ranked outside the top 200 in KenPom's rankings. Their lone loss of the season was against the highest power-rated team they’ve played (St. Bonaventure), and it came on their home floor.
On the plus side, they have Daniel Freitag, a 6-foot-2 guard out of Minnesota who comes in averaging 19.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.
The Bulls' success has been predicated on strong guard play, as Freitag’s 19+ points are aided by Ryan Sabol and Angelo Brizzi, both of whom average more than 15 points per game.
This team takes a lot of 3s, and that’s because it's been afforded the open looks. It might be a different story here as the Bulls travel to Maryland to face the Retrievers.
UMBC Basketball
UMBC comes into this game with a very respectable 6-3 record. At face value, the Retrievers face more formidable opponents, as they rank 87 spots higher than the Bulls in strength of schedule.
They have three losses and all have come on the road (Dayton, Georgetown, George Washington). All three teams also rank in the top 100 in KenPom's power rankings, and they lost by single digits to both Dayton and Georgetown.
Their metrics might be a little skewed because they've faced more vigorous opponents, but I like their ability to find open shots in this game. They also are much more balanced scoring the ball than Buffalo.
One thing both teams have in common is their ability to slow the pace down. Expect a more controlled game, and it should be close.
Buffalo vs. UMBC Betting Analysis
While Buffalo has the better record and probably the best player on the court, it'll be hard for me to side with it.
The Retrievers average just two points fewer than the Bulls, and they do it without a single scorer averaging 15 points or more. Meanwhile, Buffalo has three.
Like I mentioned before, the Retrievers do it with a balanced approach, and the Bulls' offensive strength might meet a team that has the defense to slow them down.
The Bulls shoot a ton from 3 and the Retrievers are the 13th-best team at limiting opponents from scoring from beyond the arc.
I like teams that score by committee, and if the Bulls can’t get any contributions outside of their top three guards, I'm not sure they have enough late.
My Pick: UMBC ML +110 (Play to -115)
