College Basketball Best Bets | 3 Thursday Picks

Our first loaded slate of the college basketball season comes on Friday, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had on Thursday.

In fact, Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave has college basketball best bets and three picks for Thursday, Nov. 9, including New Mexico vs. Saint Mary's and more.

College Basketball Best Bets — Thursday, Nov. 9

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Ky McKeon

A clash of styles shall be witnessed in Miami tonight as the blazing-fast Panthers of FIU host the blue-collar Texans of Tarleton State. Both teams enter this game coming off non-competitive contests with power competition.

Tarleton ran into its kryptonite — Virginia — on Monday. The Texans struggle against pack-line teams that take away the middle of the floor, can go toe-to-toe physically with them and force them to be jump-shooters.

FIU is pretty much the opposite — a sieve in the paint with a “softer” defensive reputation. UCF bludgeoned the Panthers inside, shooting 74.1% (20-of-27) at the rim on Monday, per CBB Analytics. Tarleton should be able to attack the basket and rack up trips to the foul line.

On the other end, it was clear on Monday that FIU hadn’t fixed its turnover issues from last season. The Panthers ranked 321st nationally in turnover rate in 2022-23 (KenPom) and had 24 against UCF earlier this week. If you’re loose with the ball, Tarleton will punish you; the Texans ranked fifth nationally in forcing turnovers last season.

Tarleton has been a strong dog under Billy Gillispie due to its physical, gritty style that wears opponents down as the game progresses. FIU will feel like it just survived a car wreck once the buzzer hits zero.

Pick: Tarleton State +5.5 (Play to +5)

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By Ky McKeon

The Spartans were the talk of the nation Monday night, but not for the reason they’d prefer. Plucky underdog James Madison came into the Breslin Center and upset mighty Michigan State, leading to wild speculation and overreactions.

Michigan State shot 1-for-20 from deep in that game, a number that would even be hard to hit intentionally. Shooting variance is due to swing back the Spartans’ way, and they have a perfect opponent — Southern Indiana — to rediscover their mojo.

USI transitioned from Division II last season with solid results. However, the Screaming Eagles lost their best player and top six minute earners from 2022-23. Also, one of their projected starters — Xavier McCord — is on the shelf with an injury.

Angry Sparty has a banged up, inexperienced squad to play with and a chance to bounce back from an embarrassing opening-day loss.

If locked in, Michigan State can name its number tonight. USI plays an up-tempo style that will lend to a high possession game if the Spartans are willing — and they should be given the talent disparity.

Expect a strong bounce-back effort from a title contender against a bottom-tier low-major tonight.

Pick: Michigan State -31.5 (Play to -33)

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By Ky McKeon

The game of the night will unfortunately be buried in the 10:00 p.m. ET window on ESPN+, but it'll be worth the extra coffee money in the morning to tune in.

Saint Mary’s looks to exact revenge on New Mexico after the Lobos came into Moraga and pulled off a statement win last November.

Both teams are excellent and had little trouble in their opening games. Saint Mary’s beat D-II CSU Stanislaus by a whopping 79 points on Monday – and before you say, “no big deal," consider that CSU lost by just four points to Nevada the week prior.

New Mexico slaughtered Texas Southern by 37 and showed early signs that last year’s breakout was no fluke.

New Mexico has one of the best backcourts in the country with Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House, and its dynamism alongside fellow burgeoning backcourt star Donovan Dent could cause Saint Mary’s issues.

A dominant defensive team the past three seasons, the Gaels lost one of the nation’s best perimeter defenders in Logan Johnson to graduation. High-level athleticism is something they could struggle with.

The Gaels’ backcourt is no slouch itself, and in fact, it could be among the best in the country as well; Aidan Mahaney could be a superstar.

The interior is where Saint Mary’s should find its edge, though. While UNM forwards Nelly Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil are talented, the Gaels’ frontline is deeper and full of heavy hitters. Mitchell Saxen, Joshua Jefferson, Harry Wessels and Mason Forbes form a formidable four-man frontcourt rotation and will make scoring inside a chore for the Lobos.

New Mexico will have to hit outside shots at a high clip to score with regularity tonight, and while that’s a possibility with its guard group, the better choice is backing a rock-solid defensive squad at a place where it's lost just twice in the past two seasons.

Pick: Saint Mary's -5 (Play to -6)

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