Tuesday College Basketball Betting Odds & Picks: Creighton vs. Villanova, Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Jay Wright
Tuesday night brings us one of the best slate of games in this college hoops season.
We’ll focus on two major conference games in the Big East and Big 12, with Creighton hosting No. 16 Villanova and No. 22 Texas Tech getting a visit from the No. 4 Baylor Bears.
Let’s see which teams have the betting edge.
Tuesday College Basketball Odds & Picks
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Creighton vs. Villanova
- Spread: Creighton -3
- Over/Under: 147.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
Creighton (12-3) has been a tale of two teams over the past week, blitzing Marquette at home 92-75 before losing at Butler 71-57. The Bluejays are 10-0 at home and have covered their last four home games.
No. 16 Villanova (10-3) is coming off a tough road loss at Marquette, 71-60. The Wildcats have gone just 1-2 in true road games, including a win at St. Joseph’s and a blowout loss at Ohio State. They are only 5-7-1 ATS but have failed to cover seven of their past nine games, with an 0-3 record against the spread on the road.
Creighton at home is one of the toughest teams in the country. The Bluejays are averaging 84.7 points per game, and have scored 89 or more points in five of their past six games at Omaha.
The Bluejays’ offensive metrics are fantastic across the board. They rank 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in effective field goal percentage, while shooting over 36% from 3P and over 53% from 2P.
However, the key to Creighton’s success has been its interior defense. For the first time since the 2016 season, the Bluejays are holding teams under 50% from inside the arc. Opponents are only shooting 49.3% from 2P and only 30.9% from 3P.
Villanova has one of the youngest teams in college basketball, ranking 336th with an average of only 1.01 years of experience per player. The Wildcats rank 188th in effective field goal percentage allowed, their lowest mark since the 2007-2008 season.
While Villanova has enjoyed success in Omaha, they have never traveled with as young of a team as they have this season. This game profiles as a high-scoring contest, with the last four totals between these two teams at Creighton exceeding the current over/under of 147.5.
The Wildcats have also benefited from some luck from the free-throw line, where teams have only shot 68.1%. This will certainly regress against a Creighton team that shoots 73% as a team.
I like Creighton to push the pace against Villanova and force the inexperienced Wildcats into turnovers, creating easy baskets. It is difficult to beat Creighton at home and the small line is easy to lay with the explosive offense of the Bluejays.
The Pick: Creighton -2
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
- Spread: Texas Tech -3
- Over/Under: 129.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
No. 22 Texas Tech (10-3) is coming off their biggest win of the season, an 85-50 destruction of Big 12 foe Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders also handed then No. 1 Louisville their first loss of the season, a 70-57 win at Madison Square Garden. They are only 6-7 against the spread, but 5-3 with star freshman Jahmi’us Ramsey in the lineup.
No. 4 Baylor (11-1) has played fantastic basketball all season, winning its last 10 games. However, Baylor is only 7-5 ATS this year and only played one true road game at Coastal Carolina, who lost leading scorer Ebrina Dibba to a knee injury early in the second half. When Dibba left the game, the Chanticleers were winning 50-44.
Texas Tech is playing its best basketball of the season now that Ramsey has returned to the starting lineup. The 6-foot-4 star freshman was been spectacular for the Red Raiders, leading the team in scoring (17.4 ppg), steals (1.7), and three-point shooting (47.9%).
The Red Raiders have also been bolstered by the impact of grad transfer Chris Clarke from Virginia Tech. Clarke shined during Ramsey’s absence, and is now averaging 7.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in just 29.1 minutes per game.
The Red Raiders boast the 13th-best adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom while holding opponents to just 42.9% from inside the arc.
Baylor has been strong on both sides of the ball, ranking 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Bears are overly reliant on the 3P, generating almost 34% of their points from beyond the arc.
It is not surprising that in their one true road game against Coastal Carolina, the Bears were only 33% from beyond the arc, one of their lowest averages of the season.
Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard now has a fully healthy roster and can gain confidence with his home-court advantage in this matchup. Under Beard, the Red Raiders are 3-0 at home against Baylor with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points.
The Red Raiders have just as many impressive wins on their resume as Baylor, and have won all eight of their home games. Even without Ramsey, they lost a true road game at DePaul in overtime and handed Louisville that 13-point loss.
I’m taking the home team in this Big 12 battle and will give the three points as the scalding hot Red Raiders continue their dominance over Scott Drew’s Bears.
The Pick: Texas Tech -3