Wednesday College Basketball Betting: LSU-Mississippi State, Notre Dame-Miami

Wednesday College Basketball Betting: LSU-Mississippi State, Notre Dame-Miami article feature image

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Naz Reid

Just five ranked teams are in action during Wednesday’s college basketball slate, but one of them includes an intriguing SEC duel with No. 21 LSU traveling to Mississippi State. Before that, there’s an unranked ACC contest between Miami and Notre Dame.

Let’s break them down.

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Betting Odds: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Miami Hurricanes

  • Spread: Miami -3.5
  • Over/Under: 140.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

The Hurricanes (7-14 against the spread) and Fighting Irish (8-14 ATS) have delivered comparable trends, both failing to cover in four of their past five games. But Miami is on a five-game outright losing streak while Notre Dame snapped an identical skid with a 79-73 win at Boston College on Saturday.

The 6-foot-11 Juwan Durham also returned to the Irish’s rotation after missing five of their previous six contests with an ankle injury. With Durham, Mike Brey’s crew presents a massive size advantage against a Hurricanes team with the second-lowest offensive and defensive rebounding rate, respectively, in ACC play.

Expect Notre Dame to control the game with its ultra-slow tempo as a result. Although it presents the seventh-lowest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (100.6 points per 100 possessions) during its league slate, it’s turning the ball over at a conference-low 15.2% clip.

Moreover, the Hurricanes have allowed the second-highest 3-point percentage (38.5%) in ACC play, along with their conference foes notching the third-highest scoring rate (38.3%) from that area. Brey’s bunch is amassing 66th-highest scoring percentage (36.7%) from the perimeter in Division I, and that should continue in Miami.

According to our Bet Labs data, Miami is 5-1 (83.3%) ATS vs. the Irish since Jim Larranaga took the reigns, but Notre Dame will buck that trend on Wednesday.

THE PICK: Notre Dame +3.5

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • Spread: Mississippi State -2.5
  • Over/Under: 158
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

The Tigers (11-9-1 ATS) saw their 10-game outright winning streak come to a halt on Saturday in a 1-point loss against Arkansas. On that same day, the Bulldogs (10-11 ATS) went into Oxford and tallied a six-point win in a rematch with Ole Miss.

LSU owns the third-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (99.8 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) in ACC play, but its crew has struggled defending inside the arc, yielding the second-highest percentage (53.9%) during that stretch. The Tigers’ opponents have also combined to tally the third-highest scoring percentage (52.3%) in that department.

Not only has Mississippi State accrued the third-highest two-point scoring rate (52.3%) in SEC play, but it also added the 6-foot-10 freshman Reggie Perry into its starting lineup on Saturday. He’s averaging 16.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game over the Bulldogs’ past three affairs.

At the other end, LSU’s attack has relied on the league’s highest free-throw rate (40.3%), paced by the 6-foot-10 Naz Reid (13.2 ppg). But the Bulldogs have allowed just the seventh-highest rate (35.5%) in that department, hurt more by their opponents’ perimeter offense.

The Tigers have struggled to shoot from behind the arc all season (32.8%), so I’m expecting Mississippi State’s 58th-rated AdjD (96.5 opponents’ points per possession) to slow down LSU’s high-octane group.

Per Bet Labs, the Bulldogs are 6-5 (54.5%) ATS as a single-digit favorite in SEC play, dating back to last season. That trend will continue in Starkville, as the Tigers will sustain additional regression.

THE PICK: Mississippi State -2.5