Boise State vs. Virginia Tech Odds, Pick for Thursday

The ESPN Events Invitational begins in Orlando with a Thanksgiving Day quadruple header, concluding with the most even matchup on paper — Boise State vs. Virginia.

The Hokies failed to return to the NCAA tournament last season after winning the ACC Tournament in 2022. They returned their starting backcourt with fifth-year head coach Mike Young this season, though.

Boise State made consecutive NCAA tournaments under Leon Rice, and the Broncos are trying to lean on their size and experience to overcome the loss of long time point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. in 2023-24.

The Broncos have generally been a good 3-point defense the last two seasons under Rice with the same core of players, but the early-season data leaves some concerns about the Broncos' ability to guard the line against a 3-point happy Virginia Tech offense.

Clemson made 8-of-15 from 3 against Boise State on Sunday in a dominant 85-68 win. That's significant because only twice during last season did a team shoot at least 50% from beyond the arc against the Broncos' defense — Wyoming and Colorado State during conference play.

As a whole, the Broncos' perimeter defense has generally been a strength for the last couple of seasons. They have a good amount of length and did hold a mediocre jump-shooting San Francisco team to just 4-of-19 in their D-I opener, so it's important we don't overreact to tiny shooting samples.

With that being said, it's reasonable to expect Boise's perimeter defense and overall defensive metrics to take a real step back this season.

Shaver was graded out as the Broncos' best defensive player last season by defensive box plus-minus, per EvanMiya.com. Their second-best defender also departed, and there's very little rim protection right now.

The Broncos rely on 6-foot-9 Cam Martin as their tallest player, and while he has decent rebounding numbers, he hasn't blocked a shot in two games, and the Broncos allowed 57% on 2s to San Francisco and 50% to Clemson.

Neither of those offenses are nearly as dynamic or efficient as Virginia Tech's. The Hokies will force Boise to be extremely disciplined defensively.

Boise State's offense is built around a lot of isolation and individual shot-making, and offense will be much harder to come by for it in this matchup.

Virginia Tech returns both Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor to the Young offensive scheme. The Hokies will run as many off-ball actions and screens to free up shooters as any offense in the entire country.

In years past, Boise State's backcourt guarded much better and could make life really difficult for the Hokies. The bruising, physical defense is a thing of the past for the Broncos, though, and now Virginia Tech should be able to run its stuff and generate quality looks.

Defensively, the Broncos rely on turnovers to make up for their lack of rim protection, but the Hokies don't turn the ball over, and their veteran backcourt is the single biggest mismatch advantage in this contest.

The Hokies really struggled in terms of shooting variance from 3 in their only loss to South Carolina, but the offense has been excellent and efficient in other matchups.

From a defensive perspective, the addition of Robbie Beran in the middle is huge. The Hokies allowed way too many easy rim looks last year, and Beran's 10% block rate in about 20 minutes per game off the bench helps there.

Boise State has had a lot of success in the Mountain West in the last two seasons, but non-conference play has been considerably more shaky. They were pretty uncompetitive in two NCAA tournament losses, took some bad losses in the non-conference and now will play a solid Power Five opponent.

The Broncos try to run their offense through the free-throw line, but the Hokies are one of the better defenses in the country at avoiding fouls.

The decline in Boise's defense isn't being priced in enough here, and I'd lay up to -3 with Virginia Tech on Thursday.

Pick: Virginia Tech -2 (Play to -3)

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