NCAAB Odds, Pick for Furman vs Arkansas

If Arkansas' win over Duke last week taught me anything, it's that you simply can't just walk into Bud Walton Arena and expect things to benefit the road team.

This makes UNC Greensboro's win over Arkansas three weeks ago even more perplexing, but maybe the Razorbacks just struggle against SoCon foes. Well, enter Furman into one of the true hostile college hoops environments.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Furman vs. Arkansas.

Furman is surprisingly 4-4 entering Monday's game, with its most recent disappointing defeat coming on a buzzer beater against 8-0 Princeton on Saturday.

Against the Tigers, the Paladins battled in the second half without leading scorer Marcus Foster. There's no update on Foster's status right now, but Furman could really use his services against Arkansas.

The loss of defensive stalwart and now-NBA forward Jalen Slawson completely tanked Furman's defense. The Paladins are sitting at 225th in Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Furman has allowed 75+ points in six of its eight games, including 92 to UAB and 78 apiece to Wyoming and South Carolina State.

The Dins offer zero offensive resistance. They struggle when teams use dribble penetration to get inside, which leads to clean driving lanes or open perimeter jumpers.

Furman is still among the best at the mid-major level, despite the defensive struggles. It ranks 75th in Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and 25th in effective field goal percentage. While Furman is known for outside shooting, it's one of the best teams in America at scoring inside, as it's converting on 62% of 2-point field goals.

The path to dropping 75-to-80 points is more cloudy if Foster is out, but there's no shortage of scoring threats on this roster.

It begins with point guard JP Pegues, who averages 15.7 points, five rebounds and five assists per night. Pegues excels as a scoring threat, but loves to involve his teammates for clean looks if his shot isn't there.

The other options — PJay Smith, Alex Williams and Garrett Hien — will need to step up, especially if Foster can't go.

Furman is big on shooting from deep, as its attempting 47% of its shots from distance. The Paladins will take plenty of 3s, so it's essential to drill a solid chunk to score and not let Arkansas run in transition.

Arkansas finally looked the part of a preseason top-25 team in its win over Duke.

Frankly, Arkansas needed to prove itself against the Blue Devils; otherwise, it would've entered Monday's game — against a really hungry mid-major team — with a 4-4 record.

Additionally, the Razorbacks' offense finally looked complete — for once. Two major reasons for the 80-point outburst against Duke: Khalif Battle (21 points) and Trevon Brazile (19 points with four triples).

Arkansas looked more cohesive without Tramon Mark hounding the ball. Him being out prompted El Ellis to start at the point guard spot, and Ellis focused on involving the team's go-to scorers, Battle and Brazile.

Brazile's lengthy 6-foot-10 frame and elite shooting prowess are mismatches for most opponents. Furman is no exception to the mismatch.

Arkansas should focus on getting its future NBA player the ball often, especially considering the significant height advantage against Furman's smaller frontcourt.

If Furman is without its top-scorer in Foster, the number should sit around 14.5-15 points in favor of Arkansas.

The main reason for backing Arkansas is how the athleticism of the Razorbacks could affect Furman.

There are a ton of options for Arkansas to use to exploit Furman's defensive issues, which should lead to an onslaught of points.

Pick: Arkansas -11 (Play to -12.5)

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