Iowa State vs TCU Odds, Prediction: Defenses to Step Up?

Editor's Note: Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey (shoulder) is out today.

Let's take a look at the Iowa State vs. TCU odds and make a prediction in our college basketball betting preview for Saturday's Big 12 battle.

TCU has played four Big 12 games and three of them came down to the final possession or overtime. The Horned Frogs have two razor thin losses at Kansas and Cincinnati, but also beat No. 5 Houston on its home floor by a single point last Saturday.

Jamie Dixon's team is expected to be in another very tight matchup — as are most games against the upper tier of the Big 12 — when it hosts Iowa State on Saturday. The Horned Frogs force turnovers and run in transition as well as any team in the entire country.

That athleticism and physicality is matched by T.J. Otzelberger's Cyclones, though, and both defenses are set up to negate the best strength of the opposing offense.

Iowa State runs most of its offense through star guard Tamin Lipsey, and it's primarily a ball-screen offense. TCU has two plus-plus defenders in Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson III that it can throw at Lipsey to try to slow down this Iowa State offense.

The Cyclones don't have much depth in terms of perimeter shooting either. They rank outside the top 100 in 3-point field goal percentage and in the bottom 50 in attempt rate. Lipsey has helped to quell the turnover problems that have caused problems for the Cyclones in past years, but the extremely aggressive TCU ball pressure is best punished because the Horned Frogs will leave open shooters.

Iowa State doesn't have the shooters to consistently exploit that, and the pressure at both ends of the floor should make these two offenses crack and cough up the ball more often than they're normally used to. When Iowa State does miss shots or turn it over, they grade out as an elite transition defense, which is the most important key to slowing down TCU.

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Iowa State's defense is designed to force teams to beat it from the perimeter, and TCU isn't capable of consistently doing that to anyone. The Horned Frogs have actually made 40% of their 3-point attempts in four conference games, but the season-long metrics paint a much more real picture of their shooting ability.

TCU is 131st in 3-point field goal percentage, but even more telling is how little it shoots ball from the outside. The Horned Frogs are bottom 35 in the country in 3-point attempt rate and are right around the national average in turnover rate. The Otzelberger no middle defense is designed to stop the dribble drive, which is how TCU generates most of its offense.

The Horned Frogs are also at their best offensively when they're able to get offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities. Good luck doing that against a Cyclones defense that is top 45 nationally in defensive rebounding rate.

The teams that beat Iowa State usually get hot from 3. BYU made 13 in its win against Iowa State on Tuesday and Oklahoma went 10-for-25 in the conference opener to knock off the Cyclones. TCU has remarkably made a ton of 3s to begin league play, but perhaps even more alarming is that it ranks 13th in 2-point field goal percentage. Those two will converge toward one another going forward.

The last four matchups between Dixon and Otzelberger have gone under the closing total. Sometimes, there's a lot of noise in that data. But when you consider that these two programs have clear defensive identities and consistent philosophies year after year, there's some potential signal in how their strengths are well-designed to negate the other team.

Iowa State's defense always travels, and the no middle defense will make life tough for TCU.

Pick: Under 147.5 (Play to 146)

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