NCAAB Odds, Pick for Syracuse vs Georgetown

Below, we have NCAAB odds and a pick for Syracuse vs Georgetown.

The Syracuse Orange and Georgetown Hoyas will renew their old Big East rivalry in Washington, D.C., to tip off a whole Saturday of basketball.

It's the first time since the two schools joined the Big East in 1979 that Jim Boeheim won't be coaching Syracuse.

The coaches and names that built this rivalry may not be around anymore, and the two schools don't share an athletic conference, but this will be the ninth consecutive year they've played in the non-con.

The Orange won and covered at home in a 19-point win in Syracuse last year, but this is the first head-to-head matchup between first-year coaches Ed Cooley and Adrian Autry.

The Hoyas have struggled early in the Cooley tenure, losing at home to Holy Cross and nearly losing at home to Merrimack. They've played an extremely weak non-conference schedule, except for a near win against TCU last Saturday.

Syracuse has already played three top-25 opponents, and the Orange weren't too competitive in any of those games. Credit goes to the Orange for solid wins against Cornell, Colgate and LSU at home, but they've yet to put together a strong 40-minute performance outside of Syracuse.

The emergence of Judah Mintz as one of the nation's top point guards has defined Syracuse's early season and the first handful of games of the Autry era.

The Orange are flawed overall, relying too heavily on isolation offense and dribble penetration while not generating many open shots. Defensively, they force turnovers but concede too many open baskets at the rim and from beyond the arc.

Syracuse was competitive in Maui for about 30 minutes against Gonzaga and Tennessee, but the two top-10 teams pulled away down the stretch.

You're in a great spot if you can generate a solid first look against Syracuse. The Orange don't guard first shots and struggle to grab defensive boards. They don't play a full-on 2-3 zone anymore, but you'll see some zone mixed in to keep offenses guessing.

Syracuse's quick hands will be big in this matchup. The Hoyas' defense grades out well in the half-court, but the Orange will force turnovers and run the floor against a porous Georgetown transition defense — something that plagued Cooley's Providence teams, too.

The Orange rank 41st nationally in defensive turnover rate, and Georgetown ranks sub-280th in offensive turnover rate.

Georgetown's defense hasn't gotten stops, and it can't blame shooting variance.

The Hoyas have guarded the 3-point line well, with opponents shooting only 28.9% from 3. But aside from that, there's no rim protection, rebounding or on-ball pressure.

The Hoyas finished last season 240th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, a part of Patrick Ewing's departure. Despite a relatively easy non-conference schedule, Cooley's Hoyas rank outside the top 250 in defensive turnover and rebounding rates.

The offense has taken a considerable step forward, but that's a direct result of unsustainable 3-point shooting variance.

Georgetown is shooting 39% from 3, and its top shooter is Illinois transfer Jayden Epps, who's shooting 46% from deep this year, despite shooting just 30% on moderate volume last season. Dontrez Styles is shooting 39.8% from deep, and I'm also skeptical that's his true shooting percentage.

The Hoyas are shooting 4% higher from 3 than you'd expect based on the quality of shots taken, per ShotQuality.

The offense isn't nearly as good as the improvements would suggest.

Georgetown's defense isn't as bad as the first eight games under Cooley would suggest, but the offense isn't nearly as good.

Significant negative shooting regression looms over the Georgetown offense, and those misses — plus Hoya turnovers — will lead to opportunities for Syracuse to run in transition.

Mintz will be the best player on the floor, so I believe Syracuse has a modest edge over its longtime rival.

I'd bet Syracuse at -1.5 or better, but I wouldn't lay multiple possessions.

Pick: Syracuse -1.5 or Better

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