NCAAB Odds, Pick for Xavier vs Villanova

Villanova's Justin Moore (knee) is out vs. Xavier.

The calendars have flipped and conference play is ready to heat up. Basketball arenas across the country are set to host great matchups between teams ready to prove themselves before March.

In the Big East, both the Villanova Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers have dreams of postseason play, with a strong showing in conference play unlocking that reality.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Xavier vs. Villanova.

Sean Miller expected to have a veteran, experienced frontcourt this season. Both Jerome Hunter and Zach Freemantle were expected back in Cincinnati, giving the Musketeers a fighting chance with the teams near the top of the Big East. Miller filled out the roster by collecting guards in the transfer portal.

Dayvion McKnight from Western Kentucky and Quincy Olivari from Rice looked ready to step in next to Hunter and Freemantle, balancing the roster and sparking a postseason-quality season from Xavier.

Instead, Hunter and Freemantle are both out for the season with injuries, leaving Sean Miller juggling his roster while trying to keep his team competitive.

So far, it's been a mixed bag. Olivari has been awesome and sophomore Desmond Claude looks like a future star, if not one right now. At times, however, a usually reliable defense has disappeared. Losses to Oakland and Delaware (both at home) showcased an Xavier team that didn't look ready for life in the brutal Big East.

In conference, Xavier has split, losing at St. John's while shooting 4-of-19 from long range and beating Seton Hall at home.

Traveling to Villanova is a clear elevation to a tougher test.

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We're into the early days of 2024 and this Villanova team still offers plenty of head-scratching questions. Head coach Kyle Neptune assembled a large portion of this roster in the transfer portal, and in the first few months of the season, the Wildcats haven't always gelled the way he may have hoped.

The most prominent question comes from outside the 3-point arc. This is a team that believes in shooting the long ball. They do it all the time, but it remains to be seen if they're actually skilled enough shooters collectively to live based on their 3-point shooting.

Villanova ranks in the top 10 in 3-point rate nationally, but it's merely a tick above average in 3-point percentage. Villanova's two best shooters from long range — by percentage — have been its two big men, Eric Dixon and Hakim Hart.

Inverting the offense by stretching the bigs out is great, but that shows there's an issue with the perimeter shooters on this team.

Justin Moore and TJ Bamba are both hitting safely below their career average from beyond the arc. It's unclear if that's a blip with some regression on the way or if the lack of spacing and flow in this offense has hurt their chances to find good looks in rhythm.

The second biggest question about this team comes on the sidelines, where Neptune has been receiving plenty of criticism. Sure, the Villanova fans ready to move on are probably the exact same people who wanted Jay Wright gone in the mid-2010s before he won two national titles.

I don't think Neptune is a lost cause and he certainly showcased some big wins on the recruiting trail and in the transfer portal, but he's been shaky in late-game scenarios. He called a timeout as Hart was about to drive to the basket for a would-be game-winner versus Drexel.

The Cats also came up woefully empty with chances to win in regulation or overtime at Kansas State.

Without a true alpha-dog as the go-to-guy, Villanova's offense looks sluggish down the stretch.

That brings up our final, and most pressing short term question: What is Justin Moore's health status? If there was going to be a go-to-guy here, it would be the graduate student who's been to a Final Four.

He's now missed three straight games with an injured knee and his status for this one is in question.

I'm terrified of betting on or against this Villanova team. The Wildcats hoist so many 3s, without a particularly good track record doing so.

Cold nights played a big hand in losses to city rivals Penn, Saint Joe's and Drexel, while hot shooting played a massive role in wins over Kansas State and Memphis.

Villanova's last game was its best shooting game of the season, draining 12-of-22 from deep in a blowout win at DePaul. I see the Wildcats having a tough time repeating that, especially if Moore stays sidelined.

Xavier has its own issues, but Miller knows his best chance to steal a road win is to make this game ugly.

I like the under here, with the first team to 70 points walking away as winner.

Pick: Under 138.5 or Better

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